{"away":"hamburger-sv","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"bundesliga","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"bl-2627-0076","home":"eintracht-frankfurt","inputs":{"elo_away":1357.9,"elo_home":1501.4,"lambda_away":1.161729,"lambda_home":2.005757,"last_result_used":"2026-10-30","p_dc":[0.562879,0.226977,0.210144],"p_elo":[0.56972,0.253724,0.176556],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.572931,0.237506,0.189563],"retained_mass":0.999999999941,"rho":-0.063285,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T16:30:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-10-31T17:05:30Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.6023,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.6102,"p":[0.5729,0.2375,0.1896],"p_display":[57.3,23.7,19],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"medium","top_score_in_pick":"2-1","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1092,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.1002,"score":"2-1"},{"p":0.0862,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.0796,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.067,"score":"3-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.2,"draw":0.25,"home":0.55},"reasons":["Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals.","Model Elo gap (Frankfurt 1501 v Hamburg 1358) supports a home edge, though Frankfurt's 10-17 goal record this season tempers it slightly.","Hamburg beat Frankfurt 2-1 in the last meeting (2026-05-02) and are 11th with 9 points, so a draw is somewhat more likely than the model suggests."],"score":"2-1"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.19,"draw":0.24,"home":0.57},"reasons":["No verified team-news source is available for this league, and the availability lists are empty rather than confirming full fitness.","The model still has Eintracht Frankfurt ahead on xG, 2.01 to 1.16, with a 57.3% home win probability.","Recent league meetings have been mixed, including a 1-1 and a 1-2 in the last two head-to-heads."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.5704,0.239,0.1906],"p_adj":[0.572931,0.237506,0.189563],"p_llm":[0.560025,0.244999,0.194976],"p_shadow":[0.570357,0.238999,0.190644],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"eintracht-frankfurt-vs-hamburger-sv-2026-11-01"}