{"away":"swansea-city","batch_id":"2026-11-03T0207Z-model-predict","competition":"championship","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-03T02:07:32Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"ch-2627-0004","home":"portsmouth","inputs":{"elo_away":1535.8,"elo_home":1457.1,"lambda_away":1.20149,"lambda_home":1.256363,"last_result_used":"2026-10-31","p_dc":[0.37279,0.280764,0.346446],"p_elo":[0.338058,0.285418,0.376523],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.352979,0.288588,0.358433],"retained_mass":0.999999999864,"rho":-0.031452,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":1.124,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-03T19:45:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:11:57Z","model_version":"v1.3-2026-11","published":{"btts":0.5062,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4426,"p":[0.353,0.2886,0.3584],"p_display":[35.3,28.9,35.8],"pick":"away","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"0-1","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.137,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.1022,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.098,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0922,"score":"0-0"},{"p":0.0803,"score":"1-2"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":[],"ai_combined":null,"note":"AI layer not run for this fixture"},"slug":"portsmouth-vs-swansea-city-2026-11-03"}