{"away":"kairat-almaty","batch_id":"2026-11-04T1811Z-model-predict","competition":"conference-league","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-04T18:11:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"ec-2627-0002","home":"atalanta","inputs":{"elo_away":1226.8,"elo_home":1748.8,"lambda_away":0.531088,"lambda_home":2.776654,"last_result_used":"2026-11-04","p_dc":[0.839633,0.111776,0.048591],"p_elo":[0.852725,0.120617,0.026658],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.82837,0.122801,0.048829],"retained_mass":0.999999999841,"rho":0.021016,"small_sample":["kairat-almaty"],"weights":{"temperature":1.05,"w_dc":0.8}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-04T18:13:13Z","model_version":"v1.3-2026-11","published":{"btts":0.389,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.6366,"p":[0.8284,0.1228,0.0488],"p_display":[82.8,12.3,4.9],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"high","top_score_in_pick":"2-0","top_score_overall":"2-0","top_scores":[{"p":0.1392,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.1288,"score":"3-0"},{"p":0.1014,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0894,"score":"4-0"},{"p":0.0739,"score":"2-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":[],"ai_combined":null,"note":"AI layer not run for this fixture"},"slug":"atalanta-vs-kairat-almaty-2026-11-05"}