{"away":"hearts","batch_id":"2026-11-04T1811Z-model-predict","competition":"conference-league","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-04T18:11:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"ec-2627-0004","home":"fc-thun","inputs":{"elo_away":1414.5,"elo_home":1230,"lambda_away":1.366268,"lambda_home":1.328318,"last_result_used":"2026-11-04","p_dc":[0.364611,0.253273,0.382116],"p_elo":[0.256028,0.276705,0.467267],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.34117,0.262319,0.396511],"retained_mass":0.999999999961,"rho":0.021016,"small_sample":["fc-thun"],"weights":{"temperature":1.05,"w_dc":0.8}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-04T18:13:13Z","model_version":"v1.3-2026-11","published":{"btts":0.5474,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.5023,"p":[0.3412,0.2623,0.3965],"p_display":[34.1,26.2,39.7],"pick":"away","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"0-1","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1243,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.0985,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.0869,"score":"1-2"},{"p":0.0864,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0762,"score":"2-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":[],"ai_combined":null,"note":"AI layer not run for this fixture"},"slug":"fc-thun-vs-hearts-2026-11-05"}