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        },
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                                "Home regular starters Bright Ede (out) and Aubameyang (out, 'back in training') are missing, but only FotMob reports this and it is unconfirmed, so I make a small attacking cut for Deportivo.",
                                "Osasuna's absences (Herrando and Oroz doubtful, Del Castillo out) involve non-regular starters, so no adjustment is made for them.",
                                "The model already prices form and table (Deportivo 12th, Osasuna 14th, level on 11 points), and its most likely score is 1-1, so I stay close to its probabilities."
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                                "Osasuna have three injury issues, including Aimar Oroz doubtful and Romain Del Castillo out.",
                                "Team news is single-source only (FotMob), so the absences are not fully confirmed."
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                },
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                            "reasons": [
                                "Newcastle's Miley and Fernandez-Pardo are both regular starters listed at 75% doubt, with two sources agreeing, so there is a small downside for the home side.",
                                "Everton's Branthwaite (regular starter, 75% doubt) and Grealish (50% doubt, discipline) each have a single source only, so I leave Everton's expected goals unchanged.",
                                "Rest is 8 days for Newcastle and 9 for Everton, so there is no meaningful rest or rotation edge, and no manager changes are reported."
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                                "Newcastle have Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Lewis Miley both doubtful and tagged as regular starters, plus Valentino Livramento out.",
                                "Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite is doubtful, while Jack Grealish is also doubtful but is not marked as a regular starter.",
                                "Everton's absences are only single-source listed, so that team-news signal is less certain than Newcastle's two-source injury report."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
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                    },
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        },
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                "data_status": "limited_context",
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                    ],
                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999937,
                    "rho": 0.078518,
                    "small_sample": [],
                    "weights": {
                        "temperature": 0.975,
                        "w_dc": 0.5
                    }
                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-02T20:15:00Z",
                "late": false,
                "locked_at": "2026-11-02T02:24:14Z",
                "model_version": "v1.1-2026-10",
                "published": {
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                    ],
                    "p_display": [
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                        5.9
                    ],
                    "pick": "home",
                    "source": "statistical",
                    "tier": "high",
                    "top_score_in_pick": "2-0",
                    "top_score_overall": "2-0",
                    "top_scores": [
                        {
                            "p": 0.122,
                            "score": "2-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.1068,
                            "score": "3-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0983,
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0911,
                            "score": "2-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0798,
                            "score": "3-1"
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                    ]
                },
                "revision": 1,
                "shadow": {
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                            "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.07,
                                "draw": 0.14,
                                "home": 0.79
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Benfica's Leandro Barreiro, a regular starter (7 starts in 9), is out per FotMob only (single source), so a small cut to Benfica's attack.",
                                "Alverca's regular starter Steven Baseya (8 starts in 9) is suspended per FotMob only (single source), which weakens their defence a little.",
                                "The other absences on both sides are non-regular starters and need no adjustment; the model's Elo gap (1816 v 1368) already prices in the strength difference."
                            ],
                            "score": "2-0"
                        },
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                            "m_away": 1,
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                                "home": 0.805
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                            "reasons": [
                                "The model already has Benfica at 2.63 xG to Alverca’s 0.75 xG, with a 80.5% home-win projection.",
                                "Availability is only single-source (FotMob) here, so I’m not guessing at extra injury impact beyond the listed absences.",
                                "Benfica’s recent league results and the head-to-heads both favor a home win, but those form/table signals are already reflected in the model."
                            ],
                            "score": "2-0"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
                    "ai_combined": [
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                    "upset_watch": false
                },
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            "sha256": "5e9fbd50d908ac8b529fe88810114c9c9acf1ce1f38b77971a9877201d2858c1",
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            "file": "https://thetouchlineatlas.com/ledger/pt-2627-0079-r1.json",
            "status": "correct",
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                "score_90": "1-0",
                "correct": true,
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        },
        {
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                "data_status": "limited_context",
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                "home": "gil-vicente",
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                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999948,
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                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-02T20:15:00Z",
                "late": false,
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                    "top_score_in_pick": "1-0",
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                    "top_scores": [
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                        {
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                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.1156,
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                        },
                        {
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                        {
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                    ]
                },
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                            "p": {
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                                "home": 0.43
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Vitória SC are without Thiago Balieiro, a regular starter (8 of 9 league starts), but this is single-source (FotMob) and unconfirmed, so only a small trim to their expected goals.",
                                "Gil Vicente's absences (Tchaptchet, Bamba) are not known to be regular starters, so no home adjustment.",
                                "Model xG of 1.20 v 1.01 and Elo of 1462 v 1454 point to a close match, and recent meetings have been low-scoring, so I stay near the model."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-0"
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                            "reasons": [
                                "Vitória SC are missing Thiago Balieiro, and he is marked as a regular starter, so I trim their attacking expectation a little.",
                                "Gil Vicente’s listed absences are non-regular starters, so I leave their baseline unchanged.",
                                "The injury updates here come from FotMob only, so the team-news adjustment is modest rather than heavy."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-0"
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                    },
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                },
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                    "top_score_in_pick": "1-2",
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                        {
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                        {
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                    ]
                },
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                    "note": "AI layer not run for this fixture"
                },
                "slug": "sassuolo-vs-fiorentina-2026-11-02"
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                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-02T19:45:00Z",
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                "locked_at": "2026-11-02T02:24:14Z",
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                        13
                    ],
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                    "note": "AI layer not run for this fixture"
                },
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        },
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                "cutoff_utc": "2026-11-02T02:21:25Z",
                "data_status": "limited_context",
                "fixture_id": "sl-2627-0004",
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                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-02T17:00:00Z",
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                    "pick": "away",
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        },
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                "data_status": "limited_context",
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                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T13:30:00Z",
                "late": false,
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                    "top_score_in_pick": "1-2",
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                    ]
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        },
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                    "pick": "away",
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        },
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                "data_status": "limited_context",
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                            "reasons": [
                                "Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals.",
                                "Both teams had 8 rest days, so rest gives no edge beyond the model.",
                                "Form and table (Elche 16th, Valencia 19th) are already in the model; the Elo gap favours Valencia but home advantage offsets it, so I keep the model's numbers."
                            ],
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                            "model": "gpt-5.4-mini",
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                            "reasons": [
                                "Model xG is 1.55-1.06 and its top scoreline is 1-1.",
                                "No verified team-news source is available for this league, and the availability lists are empty.",
                                "Both sides have 8 league rest days, so there is no rest imbalance to adjust for."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
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                "slug": "elche-vs-valencia-2026-11-01"
            },
            "sha256": "78e317f0a8403a8dec0766d44e19265bde01a22d8f8841ba56ea9c8ce3db3bc3",
            "commit": "pending",
            "file": "https://thetouchlineatlas.com/ledger/ll-2627-0086-r1.json",
            "status": "missed",
            "result": {
                "score_90": "0-1",
                "correct": false,
                "rps": 0.3293
            }
        },
        {
            "record": {
                "away": "real-sociedad",
                "batch_id": "2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict",
                "competition": "la-liga",
                "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-31T16:25:22Z",
                "data_status": "limited_context",
                "fixture_id": "ll-2627-0087",
                "home": "athletic-club",
                "inputs": {
                    "elo_away": 1478.5,
                    "elo_home": 1485.1,
                    "lambda_away": 1.098008,
                    "lambda_home": 1.607794,
                    "last_result_used": "2026-10-30",
                    "p_dc": [
                        0.489041,
                        0.254128,
                        0.256831
                    ],
                    "p_elo": [
                        0.427004,
                        0.282,
                        0.290996
                    ],
                    "p_market": null,
                    "p_stat": [
                        0.4612,
                        0.2665,
                        0.2723
                    ],
                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999788,
                    "rho": -0.024901,
                    "small_sample": [],
                    "weights": {
                        "temperature": 0.975,
                        "w_dc": 0.5
                    }
                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T20:00:00Z",
                "late": false,
                "locked_at": "2026-11-01T02:33:02Z",
                "model_version": "v1.1-2026-10",
                "published": {
                    "btts": 0.5396,
                    "draw_risk": false,
                    "over_2_5": 0.5027,
                    "p": [
                        0.4612,
                        0.2665,
                        0.2723
                    ],
                    "p_display": [
                        46.1,
                        26.7,
                        27.2
                    ],
                    "pick": "home",
                    "source": "statistical",
                    "tier": "low",
                    "top_score_in_pick": "1-0",
                    "top_score_overall": "1-1",
                    "top_scores": [
                        {
                            "p": 0.1268,
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0985,
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0894,
                            "score": "2-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0814,
                            "score": "2-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0747,
                            "score": "0-1"
                        }
                    ]
                },
                "revision": 1,
                "shadow": {
                    "agents": {
                        "claude": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.272,
                                "draw": 0.267,
                                "home": 0.461
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Availability lists are empty and there is no verified team news source for this league, so no adjustment to expected goals is justified.",
                                "Both teams have 7 rest days, so rest does not favour either side.",
                                "Elo ratings are almost level (1485 v 1478), so the model's home edge comes mainly from San Mamés, and I leave its probabilities unchanged."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        "codex": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "gpt-5.4-mini",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.272,
                                "draw": 0.267,
                                "home": 0.461
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "The model’s published probabilities are close to even, with Athletic Club only a narrow home edge at San Mamés.",
                                "Both teams have 7 rest days, and the dossier lists no verified availability absences or manager changes to adjust xG.",
                                "Recent head-to-heads at this venue have been tight, including 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1 scores."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
                    "ai_combined": [
                        0.4612,
                        0.2666,
                        0.2722
                    ],
                    "p_adj": [
                        0.4612,
                        0.2665,
                        0.2723
                    ],
                    "p_llm": [
                        0.461,
                        0.267,
                        0.272
                    ],
                    "p_shadow": [
                        0.46116,
                        0.2666,
                        0.27224
                    ],
                    "upset_watch": false
                },
                "slug": "athletic-club-vs-real-sociedad-2026-11-01"
            },
            "sha256": "2f467f8cbc92ae817f9f73bf224f409b94a36290df6cc1b47d5493cc03caefd0",
            "commit": "pending",
            "file": "https://thetouchlineatlas.com/ledger/ll-2627-0087-r1.json",
            "status": "correct",
            "result": {
                "score_90": "2-1",
                "correct": true,
                "rps": 0.1822
            }
        },
        {
            "record": {
                "away": "rio-ave",
                "batch_id": "2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict",
                "competition": "primeira-liga",
                "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-31T16:25:22Z",
                "data_status": "limited_context",
                "fixture_id": "pt-2627-0076",
                "home": "academico-viseu",
                "inputs": {
                    "elo_away": 1352.9,
                    "elo_home": 1340.6,
                    "lambda_away": 0.96,
                    "lambda_home": 1.773586,
                    "last_result_used": "2026-10-30",
                    "p_dc": [
                        0.57386,
                        0.215192,
                        0.210948
                    ],
                    "p_elo": [
                        0.407019,
                        0.283796,
                        0.309184
                    ],
                    "p_market": null,
                    "p_stat": [
                        0.494444,
                        0.248516,
                        0.25704
                    ],
                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999913,
                    "rho": 0.078927,
                    "small_sample": [
                        "academico-viseu"
                    ],
                    "weights": {
                        "temperature": 0.975,
                        "w_dc": 0.5
                    }
                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z",
                "late": false,
                "locked_at": "2026-11-01T02:33:02Z",
                "model_version": "v1.1-2026-10",
                "published": {
                    "btts": 0.5154,
                    "draw_risk": false,
                    "over_2_5": 0.4993,
                    "p": [
                        0.4944,
                        0.2486,
                        0.257
                    ],
                    "p_display": [
                        49.4,
                        24.9,
                        25.7
                    ],
                    "pick": "home",
                    "source": "statistical",
                    "tier": "low",
                    "top_score_in_pick": "1-0",
                    "top_score_overall": "1-1",
                    "top_scores": [
                        {
                            "p": 0.1177,
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.1068,
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0881,
                            "score": "2-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0866,
                            "score": "0-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0845,
                            "score": "2-1"
                        }
                    ]
                },
                "revision": 1,
                "shadow": {
                    "agents": {
                        "claude": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.257,
                                "draw": 0.249,
                                "home": 0.494
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals is justified.",
                                "Form and table (Viseu 6th with 17 points, Rio Ave 16th with 7 points) are already in the model, so I keep its probabilities.",
                                "Rest is equal at 7 days each and the dossier lists no manager changes, so nothing here goes beyond the model."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        "codex": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "gpt-5.4-mini",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.257,
                                "draw": 0.249,
                                "home": 0.494
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Model xG leans to Académico de Viseu at 1.77 versus Rio Ave at 0.96, with the most likely score listed as 1-1.",
                                "There is no verified team-news source for this league yet, and the availability lists are empty, so I do not adjust the model for absences.",
                                "The dossier’s league snapshot shows Académico 6th on 17 points and Rio Ave 16th on 7, which is already reflected in the model."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
                    "ai_combined": [
                        0.4944,
                        0.2486,
                        0.257
                    ],
                    "p_adj": [
                        0.494444,
                        0.248516,
                        0.25704
                    ],
                    "p_llm": [
                        0.494,
                        0.249,
                        0.257
                    ],
                    "p_shadow": [
                        0.494355,
                        0.248613,
                        0.257032
                    ],
                    "upset_watch": false
                },
                "slug": "academico-viseu-vs-rio-ave-2026-11-01"
            },
            "sha256": "f6111a2fcc5ef28868a0ed925fe8f8a475b62df242cf67a2b80f18a70deb2c49",
            "commit": "pending",
            "file": "https://thetouchlineatlas.com/ledger/pt-2627-0076-r1.json",
            "status": "correct",
            "result": {
                "score_90": "2-1",
                "correct": true,
                "rps": 0.1608
            }
        },
        {
            "record": {
                "away": "santa-clara",
                "batch_id": "2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict",
                "competition": "primeira-liga",
                "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-31T16:25:22Z",
                "data_status": "limited_context",
                "fixture_id": "pt-2627-0077",
                "home": "maritimo",
                "inputs": {
                    "elo_away": 1447,
                    "elo_home": 1283.3,
                    "lambda_away": 1.418662,
                    "lambda_home": 0.945822,
                    "last_result_used": "2026-10-30",
                    "p_dc": [
                        0.261033,
                        0.24939,
                        0.489577
                    ],
                    "p_elo": [
                        0.256755,
                        0.276841,
                        0.466404
                    ],
                    "p_market": null,
                    "p_stat": [
                        0.257044,
                        0.260988,
                        0.481967
                    ],
                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999961,
                    "rho": 0.078927,
                    "small_sample": [
                        "maritimo"
                    ],
                    "weights": {
                        "temperature": 0.975,
                        "w_dc": 0.5
                    }
                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z",
                "late": false,
                "locked_at": "2026-11-01T02:33:02Z",
                "model_version": "v1.1-2026-10",
                "published": {
                    "btts": 0.4569,
                    "draw_risk": false,
                    "over_2_5": 0.4175,
                    "p": [
                        0.257,
                        0.261,
                        0.482
                    ],
                    "p_display": [
                        25.7,
                        26.1,
                        48.2
                    ],
                    "pick": "away",
                    "source": "statistical",
                    "tier": "low",
                    "top_score_in_pick": "0-1",
                    "top_score_overall": "0-1",
                    "top_scores": [
                        {
                            "p": 0.1411,
                            "score": "0-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.1216,
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0973,
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0931,
                            "score": "0-2"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0881,
                            "score": "1-2"
                        }
                    ]
                },
                "revision": 1,
                "shadow": {
                    "agents": {
                        "claude": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.482,
                                "draw": 0.261,
                                "home": 0.257
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so I keep both multipliers at 1.0.",
                                "Rest is 9 days for Marítimo and 6 for Santa Clara, a small gap the model likely handles, so no adjustment.",
                                "Form and table (Marítimo 14th, Santa Clara 4th) are already in the Elo-based model, so I keep its probabilities."
                            ],
                            "score": "0-1"
                        },
                        "codex": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "gpt-5.4-mini",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.482,
                                "draw": 0.261,
                                "home": 0.257
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Santa Clara are 4th with 18 points and a 13-6 goal record, while Marítimo are 14th with 8 points and 9-19.",
                                "Marítimo’s last five league games include four defeats and 10 goals conceded.",
                                "No verified team-news source is available for this league; the availability lists are empty, so I did not adjust for absences."
                            ],
                            "score": "0-1"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
                    "ai_combined": [
                        0.257,
                        0.261,
                        0.482
                    ],
                    "p_adj": [
                        0.257045,
                        0.260988,
                        0.481967
                    ],
                    "p_llm": [
                        0.257,
                        0.261,
                        0.482
                    ],
                    "p_shadow": [
                        0.257036,
                        0.260991,
                        0.481974
                    ],
                    "upset_watch": false
                },
                "slug": "maritimo-vs-santa-clara-2026-11-01"
            },
            "sha256": "a0fabd53a5b483f9d0754ba6bfcdfd2e6357a5ea5ed4cd0704bc2f2e4b787230",
            "commit": "pending",
            "file": "https://thetouchlineatlas.com/ledger/pt-2627-0077-r1.json",
            "status": "correct",
            "result": {
                "score_90": "0-2",
                "correct": true,
                "rps": 0.1672
            }
        },
        {
            "record": {
                "away": "famalicao",
                "batch_id": "2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict",
                "competition": "primeira-liga",
                "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-31T16:25:22Z",
                "data_status": "limited_context",
                "fixture_id": "pt-2627-0078",
                "home": "braga",
                "inputs": {
                    "elo_away": 1512.2,
                    "elo_home": 1608.3,
                    "lambda_away": 1.004881,
                    "lambda_home": 1.463677,
                    "last_result_used": "2026-10-30",
                    "p_dc": [
                        0.487101,
                        0.243658,
                        0.269241
                    ],
                    "p_elo": [
                        0.521444,
                        0.266207,
                        0.212349
                    ],
                    "p_market": null,
                    "p_stat": [
                        0.509675,
                        0.253093,
                        0.237232
                    ],
                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999941,
                    "rho": 0.078927,
                    "small_sample": [],
                    "weights": {
                        "temperature": 0.975,
                        "w_dc": 0.5
                    }
                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T20:30:00Z",
                "late": false,
                "locked_at": "2026-11-01T02:33:02Z",
                "model_version": "v1.1-2026-10",
                "published": {
                    "btts": 0.4796,
                    "draw_risk": false,
                    "over_2_5": 0.4467,
                    "p": [
                        0.5097,
                        0.2531,
                        0.2372
                    ],
                    "p_display": [
                        51,
                        25.3,
                        23.7
                    ],
                    "pick": "home",
                    "source": "statistical",
                    "tier": "medium",
                    "top_score_in_pick": "1-0",
                    "top_score_overall": "1-0",
                    "top_scores": [
                        {
                            "p": 0.14,
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.1192,
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0954,
                            "score": "2-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0949,
                            "score": "2-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0837,
                            "score": "0-1"
                        }
                    ]
                },
                "revision": 1,
                "shadow": {
                    "agents": {
                        "claude": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.24,
                                "draw": 0.26,
                                "home": 0.5
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals.",
                                "Rest is equal at 7 days each, so there is no fatigue edge either way.",
                                "The model's Elo gap (Braga 1608 v Famalicão 1512) supports a modest home edge, and recent form is already priced in, so I stay close to the model."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        "codex": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "gpt-5.4-mini",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.237,
                                "draw": 0.253,
                                "home": 0.51
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "The model has Braga at 1.46 expected goals to Famalicão's 1.00, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline.",
                                "Recent head-to-heads have often been tight, including 1-1 and 2-2 draws.",
                                "No verified team-news source is available for this league yet; the availability lists are empty, so I keep the goal multipliers at 1.0."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-0"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
                    "ai_combined": [
                        0.5087,
                        0.2538,
                        0.2375
                    ],
                    "p_adj": [
                        0.509675,
                        0.253093,
                        0.237232
                    ],
                    "p_llm": [
                        0.505002,
                        0.25649,
                        0.238508
                    ],
                    "p_shadow": [
                        0.508741,
                        0.253771,
                        0.237488
                    ],
                    "upset_watch": false
                },
                "slug": "braga-vs-famalicao-2026-11-01"
            },
            "sha256": "60a77da723425a6e8141ea29f0ebc8577b5485bd87e6604ca565adb3661c5c09",
            "commit": "pending",
            "file": "https://thetouchlineatlas.com/ledger/pt-2627-0078-r1.json",
            "status": "correct",
            "result": {
                "score_90": "3-0",
                "correct": true,
                "rps": 0.1483
            }
        },
        {
            "record": {
                "away": "hamburger-sv",
                "batch_id": "2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict",
                "competition": "bundesliga",
                "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-31T16:25:22Z",
                "data_status": "limited_context",
                "fixture_id": "bl-2627-0076",
                "home": "eintracht-frankfurt",
                "inputs": {
                    "elo_away": 1357.9,
                    "elo_home": 1501.4,
                    "lambda_away": 1.161729,
                    "lambda_home": 2.005757,
                    "last_result_used": "2026-10-30",
                    "p_dc": [
                        0.562879,
                        0.226977,
                        0.210144
                    ],
                    "p_elo": [
                        0.56972,
                        0.253724,
                        0.176556
                    ],
                    "p_market": null,
                    "p_stat": [
                        0.572931,
                        0.237506,
                        0.189563
                    ],
                    "retained_mass": 0.999999999941,
                    "rho": -0.063285,
                    "small_sample": [],
                    "weights": {
                        "temperature": 0.975,
                        "w_dc": 0.5
                    }
                },
                "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T16:30:00Z",
                "late": false,
                "locked_at": "2026-10-31T17:05:30Z",
                "model_version": "v1.1-2026-10",
                "published": {
                    "btts": 0.6023,
                    "draw_risk": false,
                    "over_2_5": 0.6102,
                    "p": [
                        0.5729,
                        0.2375,
                        0.1896
                    ],
                    "p_display": [
                        57.3,
                        23.7,
                        19
                    ],
                    "pick": "home",
                    "source": "statistical",
                    "tier": "medium",
                    "top_score_in_pick": "2-1",
                    "top_score_overall": "1-1",
                    "top_scores": [
                        {
                            "p": 0.1092,
                            "score": "1-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.1002,
                            "score": "2-1"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0862,
                            "score": "2-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.0796,
                            "score": "1-0"
                        },
                        {
                            "p": 0.067,
                            "score": "3-1"
                        }
                    ]
                },
                "revision": 1,
                "shadow": {
                    "agents": {
                        "claude": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.2,
                                "draw": 0.25,
                                "home": 0.55
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals.",
                                "Model Elo gap (Frankfurt 1501 v Hamburg 1358) supports a home edge, though Frankfurt's 10-17 goal record this season tempers it slightly.",
                                "Hamburg beat Frankfurt 2-1 in the last meeting (2026-05-02) and are 11th with 9 points, so a draw is somewhat more likely than the model suggests."
                            ],
                            "score": "2-1"
                        },
                        "codex": {
                            "m_away": 1,
                            "m_home": 1,
                            "model": "gpt-5.4-mini",
                            "p": {
                                "away": 0.19,
                                "draw": 0.24,
                                "home": 0.57
                            },
                            "reasons": [
                                "No verified team-news source is available for this league, and the availability lists are empty rather than confirming full fitness.",
                                "The model still has Eintracht Frankfurt ahead on xG, 2.01 to 1.16, with a 57.3% home win probability.",
                                "Recent league meetings have been mixed, including a 1-1 and a 1-2 in the last two head-to-heads."
                            ],
                            "score": "1-1"
                        }
                    },
                    "agreement": "2/2",
                    "ai_combined": [
                        0.5704,
                        0.239,
                        0.1906
                    ],
                    "p_adj": [
                        0.572931,
                        0.237506,
                        0.189563
                    ],
                    "p_llm": [
                        0.560025,
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                                "Team news comes from a single source (Fantasy Football Scout) and is unconfirmed; none of the listed players is flagged as a regular starter, so I keep xG multipliers at 1.0.",
                                "Arsenal's Saka and Saliba are out and Rice, Calafiori and Madueke are 75% doubts, but these are doubts only, so the model's Arsenal edge (Elo 1721 v 1624) is only trimmed slightly.",
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