{"away":"valencia","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"la-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"ll-2627-0086","home":"elche","inputs":{"elo_away":1416.2,"elo_home":1355.1,"lambda_away":1.064518,"lambda_home":1.550328,"last_result_used":"2026-10-30","p_dc":[0.482435,0.259939,0.257626],"p_elo":[0.356018,0.285713,0.358269],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.420557,0.273591,0.305852],"retained_mass":0.99999999987,"rho":-0.024901,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T17:30:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-01T02:33:02Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.5241,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4785,"p":[0.4206,0.2735,0.3059],"p_display":[42.1,27.3,30.6],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1302,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.0963,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0889,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.0816,"score":"2-1"},{"p":0.0802,"score":"0-0"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.305,"draw":0.275,"home":0.42},"reasons":["Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals.","Both teams had 8 rest days, so rest gives no edge beyond the model.","Form and table (Elche 16th, Valencia 19th) are already in the model; the Elo gap favours Valencia but home advantage offsets it, so I keep the model's numbers."],"score":"1-1"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.306,"draw":0.273,"home":0.421},"reasons":["Model xG is 1.55-1.06 and its top scoreline is 1-1.","No verified team-news source is available for this league, and the availability lists are empty.","Both sides have 8 league rest days, so there is no rest imbalance to adjust for."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.4205,0.2737,0.3058],"p_adj":[0.420557,0.273591,0.305852],"p_llm":[0.420501,0.273999,0.3055],"p_shadow":[0.420546,0.273673,0.305782],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"elche-vs-valencia-2026-11-01"}