{"away":"real-sociedad","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"la-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"ll-2627-0087","home":"athletic-club","inputs":{"elo_away":1478.5,"elo_home":1485.1,"lambda_away":1.098008,"lambda_home":1.607794,"last_result_used":"2026-10-30","p_dc":[0.489041,0.254128,0.256831],"p_elo":[0.427004,0.282,0.290996],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.4612,0.2665,0.2723],"retained_mass":0.999999999788,"rho":-0.024901,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T20:00:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-01T02:33:02Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.5396,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.5027,"p":[0.4612,0.2665,0.2723],"p_display":[46.1,26.7,27.2],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1268,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.0985,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0894,"score":"2-1"},{"p":0.0814,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.0747,"score":"0-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.272,"draw":0.267,"home":0.461},"reasons":["Availability lists are empty and there is no verified team news source for this league, so no adjustment to expected goals is justified.","Both teams have 7 rest days, so rest does not favour either side.","Elo ratings are almost level (1485 v 1478), so the model's home edge comes mainly from San Mamés, and I leave its probabilities unchanged."],"score":"1-1"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.272,"draw":0.267,"home":0.461},"reasons":["The model’s published probabilities are close to even, with Athletic Club only a narrow home edge at San Mamés.","Both teams have 7 rest days, and the dossier lists no verified availability absences or manager changes to adjust xG.","Recent head-to-heads at this venue have been tight, including 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1 scores."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.4612,0.2666,0.2722],"p_adj":[0.4612,0.2665,0.2723],"p_llm":[0.461,0.267,0.272],"p_shadow":[0.46116,0.2666,0.27224],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"athletic-club-vs-real-sociedad-2026-11-01"}