{"away":"osasuna","batch_id":"2026-11-01T0232Z-model-predict","competition":"la-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-01T02:32:43Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"ll-2627-0088","home":"deportivo-la-coruna","inputs":{"elo_away":1395.1,"elo_home":1314.6,"lambda_away":1.077896,"lambda_home":1.419671,"last_result_used":"2026-10-31","p_dc":[0.445368,0.271407,0.283225],"p_elo":[0.336218,0.285358,0.378424],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.391308,0.27905,0.329642],"retained_mass":0.99999999996,"rho":-0.023861,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-02T20:00:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T02:24:14Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.5061,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4515,"p":[0.3913,0.2791,0.3296],"p_display":[39.1,27.9,33],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1326,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.1,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0997,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.0877,"score":"0-0"},{"p":0.079,"score":"1-2"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":0.97,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.33,"draw":0.28,"home":0.39},"reasons":["Home regular starters Bright Ede (out) and Aubameyang (out, 'back in training') are missing, but only FotMob reports this and it is unconfirmed, so I make a small attacking cut for Deportivo.","Osasuna's absences (Herrando and Oroz doubtful, Del Castillo out) involve non-regular starters, so no adjustment is made for them.","The model already prices form and table (Deportivo 12th, Osasuna 14th, level on 11 points), and its most likely score is 1-1, so I stay close to its probabilities."],"score":"1-1"},"codex":{"m_away":0.96,"m_home":0.95,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.335,"draw":0.289,"home":0.376},"reasons":["Deportivo are missing regular starters Bright Ede and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, with two more players out.","Osasuna have three injury issues, including Aimar Oroz doubtful and Romain Del Castillo out.","Team news is single-source only (FotMob), so the absences are not fully confirmed."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.3856,0.2824,0.332],"p_adj":[0.386248,0.281909,0.331842],"p_llm":[0.382978,0.284495,0.332527],"p_shadow":[0.385594,0.282426,0.331981],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"deportivo-la-coruna-vs-osasuna-2026-11-02"}