{"away":"arsenal","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"premier-league","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pl-2627-0085","home":"liverpool","inputs":{"elo_away":1721.1,"elo_home":1624.2,"lambda_away":1.446913,"lambda_home":1.199868,"last_result_used":"2026-10-25","p_dc":[0.303177,0.279083,0.41774],"p_elo":[0.319826,0.284564,0.39561],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.310833,0.280587,0.40858],"retained_mass":0.999999999946,"rho":-0.082241,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T16:30:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-10-31T17:05:30Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.545,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4926,"p":[0.3108,0.2806,0.4086],"p_display":[31.1,28.1,40.8],"pick":"away","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"0-1","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1339,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.0904,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.0871,"score":"1-2"},{"p":0.0814,"score":"0-0"},{"p":0.0768,"score":"1-0"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.405,"draw":0.28,"home":0.315},"reasons":["Team news comes from a single source (Fantasy Football Scout) and is unconfirmed; none of the listed players is flagged as a regular starter, so I keep xG multipliers at 1.0.","Arsenal's Saka and Saliba are out and Rice, Calafiori and Madueke are 75% doubts, but these are doubts only, so the model's Arsenal edge (Elo 1721 v 1624) is only trimmed slightly.","Liverpool's Szoboszlai is a 50% doubt, and Frimpong and Ekitiké are out; recent league meetings have been tight (1-0, 0-0, 2-2), which supports a 1-1 modal score."],"score":"1-1"},"codex":{"m_away":0.98,"m_home":1.01,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.388,"draw":0.29,"home":0.322},"reasons":["Arsenal’s injury table lists Bukayo Saka and William Saliba out, with Declan Rice doubtful.","Liverpool also have absences/doubts listed, including Frimpong and Ekitiké out and Szoboszlai doubtful.","Team news comes from one injury-table source only, so I’ve kept the adjustment modest."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.3141,0.2818,0.4041],"p_adj":[0.312998,0.281033,0.405969],"p_llm":[0.31853,0.285,0.39647],"p_shadow":[0.314106,0.28183,0.404063],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"liverpool-vs-arsenal-2026-11-01"}