{"away":"everton","batch_id":"2026-11-01T0232Z-model-predict","competition":"premier-league","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-01T02:32:43Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pl-2627-0086","home":"newcastle-united","inputs":{"elo_away":1428.2,"elo_home":1470.2,"lambda_away":1.080495,"lambda_home":1.571581,"last_result_used":"2026-10-31","p_dc":[0.478065,0.269689,0.252246],"p_elo":[0.464571,0.277127,0.258302],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.475005,0.271729,0.253266],"retained_mass":0.999999999844,"rho":-0.074994,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-02T20:00:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T02:24:14Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.5329,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4938,"p":[0.475,0.2717,0.2533],"p_display":[47.5,27.2,25.3],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1297,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.1012,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0935,"score":"2-1"},{"p":0.0865,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.0801,"score":"0-0"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":0.98,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.265,"draw":0.275,"home":0.46},"reasons":["Newcastle's Miley and Fernandez-Pardo are both regular starters listed at 75% doubt, with two sources agreeing, so there is a small downside for the home side.","Everton's Branthwaite (regular starter, 75% doubt) and Grealish (50% doubt, discipline) each have a single source only, so I leave Everton's expected goals unchanged.","Rest is 8 days for Newcastle and 9 for Everton, so there is no meaningful rest or rotation edge, and no manager changes are reported."],"score":"1-1"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.257,"draw":0.277,"home":0.466},"reasons":["Newcastle have Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Lewis Miley both doubtful and tagged as regular starters, plus Valentino Livramento out.","Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite is doubtful, while Jack Grealish is also doubtful but is not marked as a regular starter.","Everton's absences are only single-source listed, so that team-news signal is less certain than Newcastle's two-source injury report."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.471,0.2732,0.2558],"p_adj":[0.472946,0.272505,0.254549],"p_llm":[0.46301,0.27601,0.26098],"p_shadow":[0.470957,0.273211,0.255831],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"newcastle-united-vs-everton-2026-11-02"}