{"away":"rio-ave","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"primeira-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pt-2627-0076","home":"academico-viseu","inputs":{"elo_away":1352.9,"elo_home":1340.6,"lambda_away":0.96,"lambda_home":1.773586,"last_result_used":"2026-10-30","p_dc":[0.57386,0.215192,0.210948],"p_elo":[0.407019,0.283796,0.309184],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.494444,0.248516,0.25704],"retained_mass":0.999999999913,"rho":0.078927,"small_sample":["academico-viseu"],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T18:00:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-01T02:33:02Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.5154,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4993,"p":[0.4944,0.2486,0.257],"p_display":[49.4,24.9,25.7],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1177,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.1068,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0881,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.0866,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.0845,"score":"2-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.257,"draw":0.249,"home":0.494},"reasons":["Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals is justified.","Form and table (Viseu 6th with 17 points, Rio Ave 16th with 7 points) are already in the model, so I keep its probabilities.","Rest is equal at 7 days each and the dossier lists no manager changes, so nothing here goes beyond the model."],"score":"1-1"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.257,"draw":0.249,"home":0.494},"reasons":["Model xG leans to Académico de Viseu at 1.77 versus Rio Ave at 0.96, with the most likely score listed as 1-1.","There is no verified team-news source for this league yet, and the availability lists are empty, so I do not adjust the model for absences.","The dossier’s league snapshot shows Académico 6th on 17 points and Rio Ave 16th on 7, which is already reflected in the model."],"score":"1-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.4944,0.2486,0.257],"p_adj":[0.494444,0.248516,0.25704],"p_llm":[0.494,0.249,0.257],"p_shadow":[0.494355,0.248613,0.257032],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"academico-viseu-vs-rio-ave-2026-11-01"}