{"away":"santa-clara","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"primeira-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pt-2627-0077","home":"maritimo","inputs":{"elo_away":1447,"elo_home":1283.3,"lambda_away":1.418662,"lambda_home":0.945822,"last_result_used":"2026-10-30","p_dc":[0.261033,0.24939,0.489577],"p_elo":[0.256755,0.276841,0.466404],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.257044,0.260988,0.481967],"retained_mass":0.999999999961,"rho":0.078927,"small_sample":["maritimo"],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T18:00:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-01T02:33:02Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.4569,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4175,"p":[0.257,0.261,0.482],"p_display":[25.7,26.1,48.2],"pick":"away","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"0-1","top_score_overall":"0-1","top_scores":[{"p":0.1411,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.1216,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.0973,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0931,"score":"0-2"},{"p":0.0881,"score":"1-2"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.482,"draw":0.261,"home":0.257},"reasons":["Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so I keep both multipliers at 1.0.","Rest is 9 days for Marítimo and 6 for Santa Clara, a small gap the model likely handles, so no adjustment.","Form and table (Marítimo 14th, Santa Clara 4th) are already in the Elo-based model, so I keep its probabilities."],"score":"0-1"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.482,"draw":0.261,"home":0.257},"reasons":["Santa Clara are 4th with 18 points and a 13-6 goal record, while Marítimo are 14th with 8 points and 9-19.","Marítimo’s last five league games include four defeats and 10 goals conceded.","No verified team-news source is available for this league; the availability lists are empty, so I did not adjust for absences."],"score":"0-1"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.257,0.261,0.482],"p_adj":[0.257045,0.260988,0.481967],"p_llm":[0.257,0.261,0.482],"p_shadow":[0.257036,0.260991,0.481974],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"maritimo-vs-santa-clara-2026-11-01"}