{"away":"famalicao","batch_id":"2026-10-31T1625Z-model-predict","competition":"primeira-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-10-31T16:25:22Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pt-2627-0078","home":"braga","inputs":{"elo_away":1512.2,"elo_home":1608.3,"lambda_away":1.004881,"lambda_home":1.463677,"last_result_used":"2026-10-30","p_dc":[0.487101,0.243658,0.269241],"p_elo":[0.521444,0.266207,0.212349],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.509675,0.253093,0.237232],"retained_mass":0.999999999941,"rho":0.078927,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01T20:30:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-01T02:33:02Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.4796,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.4467,"p":[0.5097,0.2531,0.2372],"p_display":[51,25.3,23.7],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"medium","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-0","top_scores":[{"p":0.14,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.1192,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.0954,"score":"2-1"},{"p":0.0949,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.0837,"score":"0-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.24,"draw":0.26,"home":0.5},"reasons":["Team news has no verified source for this league and availability lists are empty, so no adjustment to expected goals.","Rest is equal at 7 days each, so there is no fatigue edge either way.","The model's Elo gap (Braga 1608 v Famalicão 1512) supports a modest home edge, and recent form is already priced in, so I stay close to the model."],"score":"1-0"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.237,"draw":0.253,"home":0.51},"reasons":["The model has Braga at 1.46 expected goals to Famalicão's 1.00, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline.","Recent head-to-heads have often been tight, including 1-1 and 2-2 draws.","No verified team-news source is available for this league yet; the availability lists are empty, so I keep the goal multipliers at 1.0."],"score":"1-0"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.5087,0.2538,0.2375],"p_adj":[0.509675,0.253093,0.237232],"p_llm":[0.505002,0.25649,0.238508],"p_shadow":[0.508741,0.253771,0.237488],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"braga-vs-famalicao-2026-11-01"}