{"away":"alverca","batch_id":"2026-11-01T0232Z-model-predict","competition":"primeira-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-01T02:32:43Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pt-2627-0079","home":"benfica","inputs":{"elo_away":1367.9,"elo_home":1816.2,"lambda_away":0.747028,"lambda_home":2.626253,"last_result_used":"2026-10-31","p_dc":[0.780077,0.132092,0.087831],"p_elo":[0.807177,0.149537,0.043286],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.805021,0.136392,0.058587],"retained_mass":0.999999999937,"rho":0.078518,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-02T20:15:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T02:24:14Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.4821,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.6588,"p":[0.805,0.1364,0.0586],"p_display":[80.5,13.6,5.9],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"high","top_score_in_pick":"2-0","top_score_overall":"2-0","top_scores":[{"p":0.122,"score":"2-0"},{"p":0.1068,"score":"3-0"},{"p":0.0983,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.0911,"score":"2-1"},{"p":0.0798,"score":"3-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":1.03,"m_home":0.98,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.07,"draw":0.14,"home":0.79},"reasons":["Benfica's Leandro Barreiro, a regular starter (7 starts in 9), is out per FotMob only (single source), so a small cut to Benfica's attack.","Alverca's regular starter Steven Baseya (8 starts in 9) is suspended per FotMob only (single source), which weakens their defence a little.","The other absences on both sides are non-regular starters and need no adjustment; the model's Elo gap (1816 v 1368) already prices in the strength difference."],"score":"2-0"},"codex":{"m_away":1,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.059,"draw":0.136,"home":0.805},"reasons":["The model already has Benfica at 2.63 xG to Alverca’s 0.75 xG, with a 80.5% home-win projection.","Availability is only single-source (FotMob) here, so I’m not guessing at extra injury impact beyond the listed absences.","Benfica’s recent league results and the head-to-heads both favor a home win, but those form/table signals are already reflected in the model."],"score":"2-0"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.8014,0.1379,0.0606],"p_adj":[0.802321,0.137923,0.059756],"p_llm":[0.797692,0.138025,0.064283],"p_shadow":[0.801416,0.137947,0.060637],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"benfica-vs-alverca-2026-11-02"}