{"away":"vitoria-guimaraes","batch_id":"2026-11-01T0232Z-model-predict","competition":"primeira-liga","cutoff_utc":"2026-11-01T02:32:43Z","data_status":"limited_context","fixture_id":"pt-2627-0080","home":"gil-vicente","inputs":{"elo_away":1454,"elo_home":1461.8,"lambda_away":1.009625,"lambda_home":1.197376,"last_result_used":"2026-10-31","p_dc":[0.413023,0.268186,0.31879],"p_elo":[0.428256,0.281869,0.289875],"p_market":null,"p_stat":[0.423109,0.273603,0.303288],"retained_mass":0.999999999948,"rho":0.078518,"small_sample":[],"weights":{"temperature":0.975,"w_dc":0.5}},"kickoff_utc":"2026-11-02T20:15:00Z","late":false,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T02:24:14Z","model_version":"v1.1-2026-10","published":{"btts":0.4346,"draw_risk":false,"over_2_5":0.3779,"p":[0.4231,0.2736,0.3033],"p_display":[42.3,27.4,30.3],"pick":"home","source":"statistical","tier":"low","top_score_in_pick":"1-0","top_score_overall":"1-0","top_scores":[{"p":0.1457,"score":"1-0"},{"p":0.125,"score":"1-1"},{"p":0.1156,"score":"0-1"},{"p":0.1016,"score":"0-0"},{"p":0.0816,"score":"2-1"}]},"revision":1,"shadow":{"agents":{"claude":{"m_away":0.98,"m_home":1,"model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","p":{"away":0.295,"draw":0.275,"home":0.43},"reasons":["Vitória SC are without Thiago Balieiro, a regular starter (8 of 9 league starts), but this is single-source (FotMob) and unconfirmed, so only a small trim to their expected goals.","Gil Vicente's absences (Tchaptchet, Bamba) are not known to be regular starters, so no home adjustment.","Model xG of 1.20 v 1.01 and Elo of 1462 v 1454 point to a close match, and recent meetings have been low-scoring, so I stay near the model."],"score":"1-0"},"codex":{"m_away":0.95,"m_home":1,"model":"gpt-5.4-mini","p":{"away":0.285,"draw":0.279,"home":0.436},"reasons":["Vitória SC are missing Thiago Balieiro, and he is marked as a regular starter, so I trim their attacking expectation a little.","Gil Vicente’s listed absences are non-regular starters, so I leave their baseline unchanged.","The injury updates here come from FotMob only, so the team-news adjustment is modest rather than heavy."],"score":"1-0"}},"agreement":"2/2","ai_combined":[0.4284,0.2751,0.2965],"p_adj":[0.427242,0.274607,0.298151],"p_llm":[0.433016,0.27701,0.289975],"p_shadow":[0.428402,0.275093,0.296505],"upset_watch":false},"slug":"gil-vicente-vs-vitoria-guimaraes-2026-11-02"}