What the model calculates, what AI drafts and what a person checks before anything is published.
Touchline Atlas uses software at every step, and we want you to know exactly where. The probabilities come from a statistical model, AI tools gather sourced news and draft text, and an editor checks every claim before it goes live. This page sets out those rules and how we correct mistakes.
How forecasts are made Report a mistakeEach part of a match page has one owner and one set of checks.
| Part of the site | Made by | Checked by |
|---|---|---|
| Probabilities (win, draw, loss, scores, goals markets) | Our statistical model (Elo and Dixon-Coles), run by code with fixed rules | Automatic checks (probabilities add up, data is complete), then locked before kickoff, normally 24 hours ahead. Nobody edits numbers by hand. |
| Team news dossier | AI tools (Claude, Codex) collecting facts from dated sources, each with a link | Automatic source checks; items without a dated source are dropped. Matches without verified news are labelled “limited context”. |
| Match analysis text | Drafted by AI from the locked numbers and the dossier | An editor checks every claim against its source before publishing. The draft may not add facts that are not in the data. |
| AI forecasts | Claude and Codex, each giving its own probabilities | Graded in shadow; they do not change the published numbers until they pass the rules on the methodology page. |
| Guides, answers, reports | Drafted with AI assistance from our method and data | An editor fact-checks each one; the reviewer and date appear on the article. Changing numbers are filled in from live data, not typed. |
| Grading and track record | Code, from the locked forecast and the final score | A score counts only when two independent sources agree. Every change to a graded result is logged in public. |
We record facts, such as a score, a kickoff time or an injury, with a link to where they came from. We don’t copy other sites’ text, we don’t use anonymous rumours, and team news needs a dated source.
We write probabilities, not promises. No “sure bets”, “bankers”, “tips” or “fixed” matches, no betting calls to action, and confidence labels always mean a stated probability range.
No money from bookmakers, no affiliate links and no sponsored forecasts. We are not affiliated with any club, league or AI company, and nobody can pay to change a forecast.
We say which AI tools we use and what they do. AI-generated images are labelled as such, and AI text is never published without an editor’s check.
Photos are used under their licence and credited; images made with AI are labelled. We do not use club crests or competition logos: each club appears with a plain shield badge drawn for this site.
Text inside sources is treated as data, never as instructions to our AI tools, and every AI step has a written prompt that we version and review.
The site’s operator, The Touchline Atlas, is responsible for everything published. Match analysis and articles are reviewed before they go live by Mr. 07, the pen name of the site’s editor; the reviewer and date appear on each article and analysis.
There is no second reviewer. When the editor cannot review a match in time, its page shows the statistical forecast without written analysis and says so; the forecast itself is still locked and graded as usual.
Questions about this policy: [email protected].
Send the page and, if you can, a source. Every correction to a graded result is logged.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling