AGF vs Braga prediction: our model backs Braga
Quick answer
Our model makes Braga favourites at 44% away to AGF, with the draw at 27% and a AGF win at 29%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Braga win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Braga win is 0-1 (13%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| AGF goals by Braga goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-112.8%
- 0-112.6%
- 1-09.4%
- 0-08.9%
- 1-28.8%
Model panel
| Model | AGF | Draw | Braga | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 28.5% | 27.1% | 44.4% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 28.5% | 27.1% | 44.4% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
AGF
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kahl | Suspended (suspension: Early November 2026) | Suspension | 1 source |
| Kevin Yakob | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Mikael Anderson | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nicolai Poulsen | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Janni Serra | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Braga
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sikou Niakaté | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
AGF26th · 1 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v KAA Gent (away), 15 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Egnatia (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v F.C. København (away), 18 Oct, Danish Superliga
- Drew 1–1 v Egnatia (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 2–1 v Viborg FF (home), 25 Oct, Danish Superliga
- Won 2–1 v FC Roskilde (away), 28 Oct, DBU Pokalen
- Lost 0–2 v Brøndby IF (away), 1 Nov, Danish Superliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Danish Superliga v Brøndby IF, 1 Nov
Braga8th · 14 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 0–0 v Santa Clara (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–3 v Sporting CP (home), 9 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Gil Vicente (home), 19 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Nacional (away), 25 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Famalicão (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v Gil Vicente (home), 19 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 2–0 v KAA Gent (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 0–1 v Nacional (away), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Drew 2–2 v Famalicão (home), 29 Oct, Taca da Liga, lost 1–3 on penalties
- Won 3–0 v Famalicão (home), 1 Nov, Primeira Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Famalicão, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 27%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A AGF win at 29% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win AGF vs Braga?
Our model makes Braga the favourite at 44%. Draw 27%, AGF win 29%.
What is the most likely score in AGF vs Braga?
1-1 at 13%. The most likely Braga win is 0-1 (13%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 48% yes, 52% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 43%, under 2.5 goals 57%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 51cd539f8aa2. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling