Guides to reading and grading forecasts, short answers about AI and football, and a monthly report on how our statistical model and the AI analysts performed. Every article shows who checked it and when, and links to the data behind it.
AI reconstruction · Camp Nou, pre-2023The six forecasts graded on 31 October, the first day of our public record: how the statistical model did against a simple benchmark, and the results it did not expect.
GuideWhat are RPS and the Brier score?The scores we use to grade every forecast, worked through on one match: the ranked probability score, the Brier score and log loss.AI illustration
GuideHow to read match probabilitiesWhat a 48% favourite really means, why favourites still lose, and how to read the most likely score, confidence labels and the rest of a match page.AI illustrationThe track record grades every locked forecast; the ledger lets you download them all.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling