Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction: our model backs Atalanta
Quick answer
Our model gives Atalanta a 83% chance of beating Kairat Almaty at New Balance Arena, with the draw at 12% and Kairat Almaty at 5%. The most likely score is 2-0 (14%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
2-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Atalanta win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Atalanta goals by Kairat Almaty goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 13.9 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 2-013.9%
- 3-012.9%
- 1-010.1%
- 4-08.9%
- 2-17.4%
Model panel
| Model | Atalanta | Draw | Kairat Almaty | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 82.8% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 82.8% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Atalanta
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Gaetano | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Thomas Kristensen | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Gianluca Scamacca | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Raoul Bellanova | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Sead Kolašinac | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Giacomo Raspadori | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Franck Kessié | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Thomas Pompei | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Odilon Kossounou | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Isak Hien | Out (injury: Back in training) | Injury | 1 source |
Kairat Almaty
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Atalanta13th · 11 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Won 3–1 v Venezia (home), 12 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v AC Milan (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 4–4 v Frosinone (home), 25 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Fiorentina (away), 29 Oct
- Lost 0–3 v Parma (home), 2 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 2–3 v AC Milan (away), 18 Oct, Serie A
- Lost 0–2 v Ajax Amsterdam (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Drew 4–4 v Frosinone (home), 25 Oct, Serie A
- Drew 2–2 v Fiorentina (away), 29 Oct, Serie A
- Lost 0–3 v Parma (home), 2 Nov, Serie A
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Serie A v Parma, 2 Nov
Kairat Almaty31st · 1 pts from 2 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Riga FC (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 1–5 v Panathinaikos (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Riga FC (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Won 5–0 v Irtysh Pavlodar (home), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 1–5 v Panathinaikos (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 2–2 v Aktobe (away), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v FC Altai Oskemen (home), 31 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v FC Altai Oskemen, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Kairat Almaty win at 5% is far from impossible: about one in 20.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
Our model makes Atalanta the favourite at 83%. Draw 12%, Kairat Almaty win 5%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
2-0 at 14%. The most likely Atalanta win is 2-0 (14%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 39% yes, 61% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 64%, under 2.5 goals 36%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 517f9bcaa86c. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling