FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction: our model backs FC Midtjylland
Quick answer
Our model gives FC Midtjylland a 48% chance of beating Ajax Amsterdam at MCH Arena, with the draw at 24% and Ajax Amsterdam at 28%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely FC Midtjylland win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely FC Midtjylland win is 2-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| FC Midtjylland goals by Ajax Amsterdam goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.1%
- 2-19.2%
- 1-08.4%
- 2-07.3%
- 1-26.8%
Model panel
| Model | FC Midtjylland | Draw | Ajax Amsterdam | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 48.4% | 24.1% | 27.5% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 48.4% | 24.1% | 27.5% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
FC Midtjylland
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elías Ólafsson | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Magnus Jensen | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Martin Erlić | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| David Martínez | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Mikel Gogorza | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Ajax Amsterdam
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Gaaei | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Caio Henrique | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kasper Dolberg | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Oliver Edvardsen | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Simon Adingra | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
FC Midtjylland25th · 1 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Egnatia (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Sint-Truidense (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Viborg FF (away), 19 Oct, Danish Superliga
- Lost 0–1 v Sint-Truidense (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 3–2 v Lyngby Boldklub (home), 25 Oct, Danish Superliga
- Won 2–1 v OB (home), 29 Oct, DBU Pokalen
- Won 3–2 v FC Nordsjælland (away), 1 Nov, Danish Superliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Danish Superliga v FC Nordsjælland, 1 Nov
Ajax Amsterdam2nd · 24 pts from 11 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 2–2 v Excelsior (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v NEC Nijmegen (home), 10 Oct
- Won 5–2 v FC Groningen (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Sparta Rotterdam (away), 25 Oct
- Won 1–0 v AZ Alkmaar (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v Hajduk Split (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Won 5–2 v FC Groningen (away), 18 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 2–0 v Atalanta (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Won 2–1 v Sparta Rotterdam (away), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 1–0 v AZ Alkmaar (home), 31 Oct, Eredivisie
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Eredivisie v AZ Alkmaar, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Ajax Amsterdam win at 28% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam?
Our model makes FC Midtjylland the favourite at 48%. Draw 24%, Ajax Amsterdam win 28%.
What is the most likely score in FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam?
1-1 at 11%. The most likely FC Midtjylland win is 2-1 (9%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 60% yes, 40% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 59%, under 2.5 goals 41%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 17bef0d763a6. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling