FC Thun vs Hearts prediction: our model backs Hearts
Quick answer
Our model makes Hearts favourites at 40% away to FC Thun, with the draw at 26% and a FC Thun win at 34%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Hearts win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Hearts win is 0-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| FC Thun goals by Hearts goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-112.4%
- 0-19.8%
- 1-28.7%
- 1-08.6%
- 2-17.6%
Model panel
| Model | FC Thun | Draw | Hearts | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 34.1% | 26.2% | 39.7% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 34.1% | 26.2% | 39.7% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
FC Thun
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Passavant | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Fabio Saiz | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Mats Seiler | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Marc Gutbub | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Genís Montolio | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Hearts
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tómas Magnússon | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Calvin Miller | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Rogers Mato | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Oisin McEntee | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Christian Dahle Borchgrevink | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Harry Milne | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ageu | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Blair Spittal | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Tom Renaud | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Craig Halkett | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
FC Thun32nd · 0 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v FC Twente (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Hajduk Split (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v FC Twente (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 2–2 v Schaffhausen (away), 18 Oct, Cup, won 8–7 on penalties
- Lost 0–1 v Hajduk Split (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 2–3 v FC Lugano (home), 25 Oct, Super League
- Won 5–4 v Lausanne (away), 1 Nov, Super League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Super League v Lausanne, 1 Nov
Hearts3rd · 20 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Kilmarnock (away), 19 Sep
- Won 5–0 v St Mirren (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–7 v Celtic (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Motherwell (away), 25 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Rangers (home), 28 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–7 v Celtic (away), 18 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Lost 0–2 v Trabzonspor (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Won 2–0 v Motherwell (away), 25 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Drew 2–2 v Rangers (home), 28 Oct, Scottish Premiership
- Lost 1–2 v Hibernian (home), 1 Nov, Scottish League Cup
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Scottish League Cup v Hibernian, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 26%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A FC Thun win at 34% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win FC Thun vs Hearts?
Our model makes Hearts the favourite at 40%. Draw 26%, FC Thun win 34%.
What is the most likely score in FC Thun vs Hearts?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely Hearts win is 0-1 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 55% yes, 45% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 50%, under 2.5 goals 50%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 4439ff2e0aa6. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling