AGFVSBragaAtalantaVSKairat AlmatyFC MidtjyllandVSAjax AmsterdamFC ThunVSHearts

Champions League prediction accuracy

Every forecast is locked before kickoff (normally 24 hours before), hashed into our public ledger and graded on the 90-minute result. Misses stay on the record. Published forecasts and the backtest are reported separately and never mixed.

Data batch updated Early sample: 18 graded

Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating.

RPS0.164Not enough rounds for an interval
Log loss0.729Lower is better
Picks graded183 Nov – 4 Nov 2026
Correct (1X2)83.3%Most likely result came true
Brier score0.405Sum over H/D/A, 0–2
Coverage100.0%0 awaiting grading · 0 excluded

Model comparison

ModelnCorrectRPSBrierLog loss
Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model1883.3%0.16390.40470.7286
Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles1883.3%0.16390.40470.7286
ClaudeAI analyst · shadow0––––
CodexAI analyst · shadow0––––
Base rateBenchmark: league H/D/A frequency1844.4%0.26850.62721.0339
Elo onlyBenchmark1877.8%0.16570.42060.7544

The n column shows how many matches each row covers, so only compare scores between rows with the same n. Lowest RPS among the rows with the most matches is in bold. Claude and Codex have only run on some matches so far and stay in shadow: they are graded but not used in the published probability (V1). The AI layer section compares them with the statistical model on the same matches.

Calibration

Graded published forecasts in five bins by the top probability, with 95% intervals.

30%30%40%40%50%50%60%60%70%70%80%80%90%90%< 45%: predicted 42%, observed 100% (n = 3)45–55%: predicted 49%, observed 67% (n = 6)55–65%: predicted 59%, observed 86% (n = 7)65–75%: predicted 72%, observed 100% (n = 1)≥ 75%: predicted 82%, observed 100% (n = 1)Predicted probability of the pick

Our picksPerfect calibration

Top probabilitynPredictedObserved95% CI
< 45%342%100%44–100%
45–55%649%67%30–90%
55–65%759%86%49–97%
65–75%172%100%21–100%
≥ 75%182%100%21–100%

By confidence tier

TiernCorrectBacktest
High2100.0%70–83%
Medium988.9%about 61%
Low771.4%39–49%

High: top probability 65% or more · Medium: 50–65% · Low: under 50%. Totals include Low picks.

By market

"Simple rule" is the benchmark in the note under each market.

MarketCorrectSimple rule
Result (1X2)Always pick the home team83.3%44.4%
Correct score: most likely overallExact scores land about one time in eight5.6%–
Correct score: most likely in the pick5.6%–
Over/Under 2.5 goalsAlways pick the more common side77.8%77.8%
Both teams to scoreClose to the base rate: little skill shown so far44.4%55.6%

AI layer – shadow, not yet used in published probabilities

No graded match has the AI layer yet. Claude and Codex forecast each match in shadow from the day before kickoff; their record appears here once those matches are graded. The AI layer gets a weight only after at least 300 graded matches and the other conditions on the methodology page.

Methodology

Grading rules

Graded on the 90-minute score; extra time and penalties are ignored. Every forecast locked before kickoff counts. We lock 24 hours before kickoff, or straight away when a match enters our tracking later than that; each match page shows the actual lock time. Forecasts locked after kickoff are never graded. Corrections are logged, never silently replaced.

Grading methodology

Exclusion log

No exclusions so far.

Forecast archive

Every graded forecast with its locked probabilities, result and hash. Download the full ledger as CSV or JSON.

Browse graded resultsOpen the ledger

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For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling