AGFVSBragaAtalantaVSKairat AlmatyFC MidtjyllandVSAjax AmsterdamFC ThunVSHearts

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Claude football predictions – role & record

An AI analyst that reads the same numbers as the statistical model plus a sourced team-news dossier, then gives its own win, draw and loss probabilities and a bounded adjustment to expected goals. Its view is locked and graded like every other layer, but it does not change the published numbers yet.

Model version v1.3-2026-11

Record

Graded matches
11
Correct · 1X2
72.7%
RPS · lower is better
0.1926
Log loss
0.8535

Against the statistical model on the same matches: RPS +0.0010 (95% interval -0.0033 to +0.0045). Negative is better.

Early sample: fewer than 100 graded matches.

LeagueGradedCorrectRPSvs statistical
Premier League250.0%0.3013-0.0061
La Liga366.7%0.2508+0.0004
Serie A00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Bundesliga1100.0%0.1213+0.0121
Ligue 100.0%0.0000+0.0000
Primeira Liga580.0%0.1285+0.0020
Scottish Premiership00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Eredivisie00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Süper Lig00.0%0.0000+0.0000
EFL Championship00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Saudi Pro League00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Champions League00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Europa League00.0%0.0000+0.0000
Conference League00.0%0.0000+0.0000

When it disagreed with the panel

Claude has not yet disagreed with the other two on a graded match.

Model versions

VersionIn usePublished modelAI weightNotes
v1.3-2026-112 Nov 2026 – nowStatistical model: Elo + Dixon-Coles, log-pooled and calibrated per league; European club competitions rated across leagues0%Adds the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. A club's European rating starts from its domestic rating and adds a league-strength offset and a club offset, both learned from European results since 2016/17, qualifying rounds included. Clubs whose domestic league is not in our data are rated from European matches only. Goals use the club's domestic attack and defence plus league and club offsets fitted on European matches. Settings were chosen on 2019/20 and 2021/22 (matches played without fans left out) and tested on 2022/23 to 2025/26: Champions League RPS 0.191 over 628 matches, Europa League 0.198 over 660, Conference League 0.208 over 588. In the Champions League test the model was too cautious about favourites. Domestic league forecasts are unchanged from v1.2-2026-11.
v1.2-2026-112 Nov 2026 – 2 Nov 2026Statistical model: Elo + Dixon-Coles, log-pooled and calibrated per league0%Calibration per league: each league gets its own temperature, chosen on its validation seasons (2020/21–2021/22; Scotland 2020/21; Saudi Pro League 2023/24) and pulled towards the shared value when the league has little history. Serie A keeps the shared value because its own failed our calibration check. Clubs moving between the Premier League and the Championship now keep their rating across the two leagues (Elo gap 400 points, Dixon-Coles gap 0.1) instead of starting as newly promoted sides. One erroneous result removed from the Saudi history. Other settings unchanged from v1.1-2026-10.
v1.1-2026-1031 Oct 2026 – 2 Nov 2026Statistical model: Elo + Dixon-Coles, log-pooled and calibrated0%First version fitted on real results: open historical data (CC0) from 2016/17 plus live-season results after the open data's last update. Settings chosen on the 2020/21–2021/22 validation seasons, reported on 2022/23–2025/26. Claude and Codex not run yet (no AI layer).
v1.0-2026-10Not publishedStatistical model: Elo + Dixon-Coles, log-pooled and calibrated0%Development prototype, run only on sample data while the site was being built. It was never published, and none of its forecasts are in the ledger or the track record.

Every locked forecast records its model version in the ledger.

Claude is an AI model made by Anthropic and Codex by OpenAI. We use them as tools to read match dossiers; neither company reviews, sponsors or endorses these forecasts.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling