AS Monaco vs FC Nordsjælland prediction: our model backs AS Monaco
Quick answer
Our model gives AS Monaco a 59% chance of beating FC Nordsjælland at Stade Louis II, with the draw at 22% and FC Nordsjælland at 19%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%); the most likely AS Monaco win is 2-1. Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely AS Monaco win is 2-1 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| AS Monaco goals by FC Nordsjælland goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-110.1%
- 2-19.9%
- 1-09.2%
- 2-09.0%
- 3-16.7%
Model panel
| Model | AS Monaco | Draw | FC Nordsjælland | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 58.8% | 21.9% | 19.3% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 58.8% | 21.9% | 19.3% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
AS Monaco
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ansu Fati | Out (injury: Late December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Stanis Idumbo | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
FC Nordsjælland
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Araphat Mohammed | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Justin Janssen | Suspended (suspension: Early November 2026) | Suspension | 1 source |
| Souleymane Alio | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
AS Monaco7th · 15 pts from 9 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Lens (home), 18 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Toulouse (home), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Lorient (away), 18 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Lille (home), 25 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Paris FC (away), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v CSKA Sofia (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 0–1 v Lorient (away), 18 Oct, Ligue 1
- Won 3–0 v SC Freiburg (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Drew 1–1 v Lille (home), 25 Oct, Ligue 1
- Lost 1–3 v Paris FC (away), 1 Nov, Ligue 1
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Ligue 1 v Paris FC, 1 Nov
FC Nordsjælland19th · 2 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Hearts (away), 15 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v CSKA Sofia (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 3–3 v Lyngby Boldklub (away), 18 Oct, Danish Superliga
- Drew 2–2 v CSKA Sofia (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 1–1 v Silkeborg IF (away), 25 Oct, Danish Superliga
- Won 1–0 v Esbjerg fB (away), 28 Oct, DBU Pokalen
- Lost 2–3 v FC Midtjylland (home), 1 Nov, Danish Superliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Danish Superliga v FC Midtjylland, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A FC Nordsjælland win at 19% is far from impossible: about one in 5.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win AS Monaco vs FC Nordsjælland?
Our model makes AS Monaco the favourite at 59%. Draw 22%, FC Nordsjælland win 19%.
What is the most likely score in AS Monaco vs FC Nordsjælland?
1-1 at 10%. The most likely AS Monaco win is 2-1 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 58% yes, 42% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 60%, under 2.5 goals 40%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 e3926413457a. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling