CSU Craiova vs Egnatia prediction: our model backs CSU Craiova
Quick answer
Our model gives CSU Craiova a 40% chance of beating Egnatia at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, with the draw at 26% and Egnatia at 34%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely CSU Craiova win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely CSU Craiova win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| CSU Craiova goals by Egnatia goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-112.4%
- 1-09.5%
- 0-18.9%
- 2-18.4%
- 1-27.8%
Model panel
| Model | CSU Craiova | Draw | Egnatia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 40.2% | 26.2% | 33.6% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 40.2% | 26.2% | 33.6% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
CSU Craiova
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pavlo Isenko | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
Egnatia
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
CSU Craiova11th · 4 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Getafe (home), 15 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Inter D'Escaldes (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v FCV Farul Constanța (home), 18 Oct, Superliga
- Won 3–1 v Inter D'Escaldes (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 5–0 v Sepsi OSK (away), 26 Oct, Superliga
- Drew 1–1 v FC Voluntari (away), 29 Oct, Cup Grp. D
- Won 2–1 v Botoșani (home), 1 Nov, Superliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Superliga v Botoșani, 1 Nov
Egnatia20th · 2 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v FC Midtjylland (home), 15 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v AGF (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–1 v Vllaznia (home), 18 Oct, Kategoria Superiore
- Drew 1–1 v AGF (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 1–2 v FC Dinamo City (away), 25 Oct, Kategoria Superiore
- Won 1–0 v Teuta Durrës (home), 29 Oct, Kategoria Superiore
- Won 2–1 v KF Tirana (away), 1 Nov, Kategoria Superiore
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Kategoria Superiore v KF Tirana, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 26%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Egnatia win at 34% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win CSU Craiova vs Egnatia?
Our model makes CSU Craiova the favourite at 40%. Draw 26%, Egnatia win 34%.
What is the most likely score in CSU Craiova vs Egnatia?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely CSU Craiova win is 1-0 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 55% yes, 45% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 50%, under 2.5 goals 50%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 5e85c8ce9ee9. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling