FC Twente vs Pafos prediction: our model backs FC Twente
Quick answer
Our model gives FC Twente a 54% chance of beating Pafos at De Grolsch Veste, with the draw at 25% and Pafos at 21%. The most likely score is 1-0 (13%). Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely FC Twente win.
Full score grid and top 5
| FC Twente goals by Pafos goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-013.4%
- 1-111.8%
- 2-010.9%
- 2-19.0%
- 0-08.5%
Model panel
| Model | FC Twente | Draw | Pafos | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 54.4% | 25.1% | 20.5% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 54.4% | 25.1% | 20.5% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
FC Twente
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Thorvaldsen | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Max Bruns | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Lars Unnerstall | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
| Stav Lemkin | Out (injury: Day to day) | Injury | 1 source |
Pafos
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
FC Twente4th · 23 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Won 3–2 v PSV Eindhoven (home), 20 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Fortuna Sittard (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v FC Utrecht (home), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v AZ Alkmaar (away), 25 Oct
- Won 9–0 v Excelsior (away), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v FC Thun (home), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 1–2 v FC Utrecht (home), 18 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 4–1 v Lincoln Red Imps (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Won 2–0 v AZ Alkmaar (away), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 9–0 v Excelsior (away), 1 Nov, Eredivisie
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Eredivisie v Excelsior, 1 Nov
Pafos27th · 1 pts from 2 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 1–3 v Atalanta (away), 15 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Riga FC (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–3 v Atalanta (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 0–0 v APOEL Nicosia (home), 19 Oct, Cyprus League
- Drew 1–1 v Riga FC (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 0–0 v Nea Salamis (away), 26 Oct, Cyprus League
- Drew 2–2 v Apollon Limassol (away), 31 Oct, Cyprus League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Cyprus League v Apollon Limassol, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 25%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Pafos win at 21% is far from impossible: about one in 5.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win FC Twente vs Pafos?
Our model makes FC Twente the favourite at 54%. Draw 25%, Pafos win 21%.
What is the most likely score in FC Twente vs Pafos?
1-0 at 13%. The most likely FC Twente win is 1-0 (13%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 46% yes, 54% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 45%, under 2.5 goals 55%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 0d904c1f0b6b. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling