KuPS Kuopio vs KAA Gent prediction: our model backs KAA Gent
Quick answer
Our model makes KAA Gent favourites at 52% away to KuPS Kuopio, with the draw at 27% and a KuPS Kuopio win at 21%. The most likely score is 0-1 (17%). Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
0-1 is both the single most likely score and the most likely KAA Gent win.
Full score grid and top 5
| KuPS Kuopio goals by KAA Gent goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 16.9 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 0-116.9%
- 1-112.2%
- 0-011.1%
- 0-210.7%
- 1-29.2%
Model panel
| Model | KuPS Kuopio | Draw | KAA Gent | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 21.1% | 27.2% | 51.7% | 0-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 21.1% | 27.2% | 51.7% | 0-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
KuPS Kuopio
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
KAA Gent
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mouhamed Ngom | Out (injury: Early June 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
KuPS Kuopio34th · 0 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 2–4 v Trabzonspor (home), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Borac Banja Luka (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v VPS (home), 18 Oct, Veikkausliiga Championship Group
- Lost 0–2 v Borac Banja Luka (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 2–2 v HJK (away), 25 Oct, Veikkausliiga Championship Group
- Drew 1–1 v IF Gnistan (home), 29 Oct, Veikkausliiga Championship Group
- Lost 0–2 v AC Oulu (away), 1 Nov, Veikkausliiga Championship Group
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Veikkausliiga Championship Group v AC Oulu, 1 Nov
KAA Gent17th · 3 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v AGF (home), 15 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Braga (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v AGF (home), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 3–3 v Union Rochefortoise (away), 18 Oct, Cup, lost 3–4 on penalties
- Lost 0–2 v Braga (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 4–0 v Anderlecht (home), 25 Oct, Belgian Pro League
- Lost 0–2 v Lommel SK (away), 1 Nov, Belgian Pro League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Belgian Pro League v Lommel SK, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 27%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A KuPS Kuopio win at 21% is far from impossible: about one in 5.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win KuPS Kuopio vs KAA Gent?
Our model makes KAA Gent the favourite at 52%. Draw 27%, KuPS Kuopio win 21%.
What is the most likely score in KuPS Kuopio vs KAA Gent?
0-1 at 17%. The most likely KAA Gent win is 0-1 (17%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 41% yes, 59% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 37%, under 2.5 goals 63%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 4f50180bde7c. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling