Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split prediction: our model backs Hajduk Split
Quick answer
Our model makes Hajduk Split favourites at 51% away to Lincoln Red Imps, with the draw at 25% and a Lincoln Red Imps win at 24%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely Hajduk Split win is 0-1. Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Hajduk Split win is 0-1 (12%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Lincoln Red Imps goals by Hajduk Split goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.9%
- 0-111.7%
- 1-29.6%
- 0-29.3%
- 1-07.3%
Model panel
| Model | Lincoln Red Imps | Draw | Hajduk Split | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 23.6% | 25.1% | 51.3% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 23.6% | 25.1% | 51.3% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Lincoln Red Imps
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Hajduk Split
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dali | Out (injury: About a week) | Injury | 1 source |
| Adrion Pajaziti | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Dario Marešić | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ivica Ivušić | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
| Roko Brajković | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Lincoln Red Imps33rd · 0 pts from 2 · 14 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v SK Brann (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 1–4 v FC Twente (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Omonia Nicosia (away), 13 Aug, UEL Qualifying
- Lost 0–2 v Larne (home), 20 Aug, UECL Qualifying
- Won 3–0 v Larne (away), 27 Aug, UECL Qualifying, after extra time
- Lost 1–2 v SK Brann (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 1–4 v FC Twente (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Conference League v FC Twente, 22 Oct
Hajduk Split8th · 6 pts from 2 · 5 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Ajax Amsterdam (home), 15 Oct
- Won 1–0 v FC Thun (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v Ajax Amsterdam (home), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Won 1–0 v NK Varaždin (home), 18 Oct, HNL
- Won 1–0 v FC Thun (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Drew 2–2 v NK Istra 1961 (away), 26 Oct, HNL
- Won 5–0 v HNK Gorica (home), 31 Oct, HNL
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from HNL v HNK Gorica, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 25%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Lincoln Red Imps win at 24% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?
Our model makes Hajduk Split the favourite at 51%. Draw 25%, Lincoln Red Imps win 24%.
What is the most likely score in Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely Hajduk Split win is 0-1 (12%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 51% yes, 49% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 49%, under 2.5 goals 51%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 b1548567ee17. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling