Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia prediction: our model backs Panathinaikos
Quick answer
Our model gives Panathinaikos a 69% chance of beating CSKA Sofia at Athens Olympic Stadium, with the draw at 20% and CSKA Sofia at 11%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Panathinaikos win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Panathinaikos goals by CSKA Sofia goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-014.5%
- 2-014.1%
- 2-19.3%
- 1-19.3%
- 3-09.3%
Model panel
| Model | Panathinaikos | Draw | CSKA Sofia | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 69.2% | 19.9% | 10.9% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 69.2% | 19.9% | 10.9% | 1-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Panathinaikos
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Kristiansen | Out (injury: A few days) | Injury | 1 source |
| Azzedine Ounahi | Out (injury: Early January 2027) | Injury | 1 source |
| Sverrir Ingi Ingason | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
CSKA Sofia
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Panathinaikos1st · 6 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Borac Banja Luka (home), 15 Oct
- Won 5–1 v Kairat Almaty (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 5–1 v Asteras Tripoli (home), 18 Oct, Greek Super League
- Won 5–1 v Kairat Almaty (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 1–0 v Volos NFC (away), 25 Oct, Greek Super League
- Won 2–1 v Aris Thessaloniki (home), 28 Oct, Cup Group Stage
- Won 2–0 v AEK Athens (home), 1 Nov, Greek Super League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Greek Super League v AEK Athens, 1 Nov
CSKA Sofia23rd · 1 pts from 2 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 1–2 v AS Monaco (home), 15 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v FC Nordsjælland (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v AS Monaco (home), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Won 2–0 v Nesebar (away), 18 Oct, Cup
- Drew 2–2 v FC Nordsjælland (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 2–0 v Ludogorets Razgrad (home), 26 Oct, First Professional League
- Drew 0–0 v Slavia Sofia (home), 31 Oct, First Professional League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from First Professional League v Slavia Sofia, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A CSKA Sofia win at 11% is far from impossible: about one in 9.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Our model makes Panathinaikos the favourite at 69%. Draw 20%, CSKA Sofia win 11%.
What is the most likely score in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
1-0 at 14%. The most likely Panathinaikos win is 1-0 (14%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 42% yes, 58% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 49%, under 2.5 goals 51%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 fbe6360aec22. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling