Red Star Belgrade vs Inter D'Escaldes prediction: our model backs Red Star Belgrade
Quick answer
Our model gives Red Star Belgrade a 71% chance of beating Inter D'Escaldes at Rajko Mitic Stadium, with the draw at 17% and Inter D'Escaldes at 12%. The most likely score is 2-0 (10%). High confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
2-0 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Red Star Belgrade win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Red Star Belgrade goals by Inter D'Escaldes goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | <0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 2-010.0%
- 3-08.7%
- 2-18.6%
- 1-18.0%
- 1-07.8%
Model panel
| Model | Red Star Belgrade | Draw | Inter D'Escaldes | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 70.5% | 17.4% | 12.1% | 2-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 70.5% | 17.4% | 12.1% | 2-0 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Red Star Belgrade
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Inter D'Escaldes
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Red Star Belgrade22nd · 1 pts from 2 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v FC Lugano (away), 15 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v F.C. København (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 2–3 v FC Lugano (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Won 5–1 v Mladost Lučani (home), 18 Oct, Super Liga
- Drew 2–2 v F.C. København (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 1–0 v OFK Beograd (away), 25 Oct, Super Liga
- Won 4–2 v Mačva Šabac (away), 31 Oct, Super Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Super Liga v Mačva Šabac, 31 Oct
Inter D'Escaldes35th · 0 pts from 2 · 14 days' rest
- Lost 0–2 v Mjällby AIF (away), 15 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v CSU Craiova (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 4–0 v Flora (away), 13 Aug, UECL Qualifying
- Drew 2–2 v Drita Gjilan (away), 20 Aug, UECL Qualifying
- Drew 0–0 v Drita Gjilan (home), 27 Aug, UECL Qualifying, won 4–2 on penalties
- Lost 0–2 v Mjällby AIF (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 1–3 v CSU Craiova (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Conference League v CSU Craiova, 22 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A Inter D'Escaldes win at 12% is far from impossible: about one in 8.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Red Star Belgrade vs Inter D'Escaldes?
Our model makes Red Star Belgrade the favourite at 71%. Draw 17%, Inter D'Escaldes win 12%.
What is the most likely score in Red Star Belgrade vs Inter D'Escaldes?
2-0 at 10%. The most likely Red Star Belgrade win is 2-0 (10%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 54% yes, 46% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 66%, under 2.5 goals 34%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 75271e89f82b. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling