Riga FC vs Jablonec prediction: our model backs Riga FC
Quick answer
Our model gives Riga FC a 38% chance of beating Jablonec at Skonto Stadions, with the draw at 28% and Jablonec at 34%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Riga FC win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Riga FC win is 1-0 (12%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Riga FC goals by Jablonec goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-113.1%
- 1-011.7%
- 0-111.0%
- 0-09.3%
- 2-18.0%
Model panel
| Model | Riga FC | Draw | Jablonec | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 37.8% | 27.9% | 34.3% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 37.8% | 27.9% | 34.3% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Riga FC
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
Jablonec
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin-Prince Milla | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Jan Suchan | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Close to base rate (about 52% in these leagues)From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Riga FC21st · 2 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Kairat Almaty (home), 15 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Pafos (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Kairat Almaty (home), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Won 2–1 v SK Super Nova (home), 18 Oct, Virsliga
- Drew 1–1 v Pafos (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 5–2 v Grobiņa (away), 26 Oct, Virsliga
- Drew 0–0 v Ogre United (away), 1 Nov, Virsliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Virsliga v Ogre United, 1 Nov
Jablonec24th · 1 pts from 2 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v SC Freiburg (away), 15 Oct
- Drew 0–0 v Brighton (home), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 2–3 v SC Freiburg (away), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 2–3 v Viktoria Plzen (home), 18 Oct, 1. Liga
- Drew 0–0 v Brighton (home), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Won 2–1 v Hradec Králové (away), 25 Oct, 1. Liga
- Lost 0–5 v Slavia Prague (home), 31 Oct, 1. Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from 1. Liga v Slavia Prague, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 28%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Jablonec win at 34% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Riga FC vs Jablonec?
Our model makes Riga FC the favourite at 38%. Draw 28%, Jablonec win 34%.
What is the most likely score in Riga FC vs Jablonec?
1-1 at 13%. The most likely Riga FC win is 1-0 (12%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 48% yes, 52% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 42%, under 2.5 goals 58%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 c71fae31b67d. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling