Sint-Truidense vs SK Brann prediction: our model backs Sint-Truidense
Quick answer
Our model gives Sint-Truidense a 50% chance of beating SK Brann at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, with the draw at 24% and SK Brann at 26%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%); the most likely Sint-Truidense win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely Sint-Truidense win is 2-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Sint-Truidense goals by SK Brann goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.0%
- 2-19.4%
- 1-08.4%
- 2-07.5%
- 1-26.6%
Model panel
| Model | Sint-Truidense | Draw | SK Brann | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 49.8% | 23.9% | 26.3% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 49.8% | 23.9% | 26.3% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Sint-Truidense
No absences listed in our sources for this match yet. That does not confirm a fully available squad.
SK Brann
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eggert Guðmundsson | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Nana Boakye | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Jacob Lungi Sørensen | Out (injury: A few weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kjartan Kjartansson | Out (injury: Mid December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Sakarias Opsahl | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Sondre Tronstad | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Sint-Truidense7th · 6 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–0 v Iberia 1999 (home), 15 Oct
- Won 1–0 v FC Midtjylland (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Iberia 1999 (home), 15 Oct, Conference League
- Won 4–1 v Lommel (home), 18 Oct, Cup
- Won 1–0 v FC Midtjylland (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 2–3 v Club Brugge (away), 25 Oct, Belgian Pro League
- Lost 1–2 v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (home), 1 Nov, Belgian Pro League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Belgian Pro League v Oud-Heverlee Leuven, 1 Nov
SK Brann3rd · 6 pts from 2 · 4 days' rest
- Won 2–1 v Lincoln Red Imps (home), 15 Oct
- Won 4–1 v Kauno Zalgiris (away), 22 Oct
Last 2 Conference League matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–3 v Vålerenga (away), 18 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
- Won 4–1 v Kauno Zalgiris (away), 22 Oct, Conference League
- Lost 2–3 v Lillestrom (away), 25 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
- Won 2–0 v Grorud (away), 28 Oct, Cup
- Won 3–2 v Molde (home), 1 Nov, Norwegian Eliteserien
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Norwegian Eliteserien v Molde, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A SK Brann win at 26% is far from impossible: about one in 4.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Sint-Truidense vs SK Brann?
Our model makes Sint-Truidense the favourite at 50%. Draw 24%, SK Brann win 26%.
What is the most likely score in Sint-Truidense vs SK Brann?
1-1 at 11%. The most likely Sint-Truidense win is 2-1 (9%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 60% yes, 40% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 59%, under 2.5 goals 41%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 68cc2f5a5842. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling