Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg prediction: our model backs SC Freiburg
Quick answer
Our model makes SC Freiburg favourites at 46% away to Trabzonspor, with the draw at 25% and a Trabzonspor win at 29%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely SC Freiburg win is 0-1. Low confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
1-1 is the single most likely score. The most likely SC Freiburg win is 0-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick.
Full score grid and top 5
| Trabzonspor goals by SC Freiburg goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 1-111.7%
- 0-19.3%
- 1-29.2%
- 0-27.4%
- 1-07.1%
Model panel
| Model | Trabzonspor | Draw | SC Freiburg | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 28.9% | 25.0% | 46.1% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 28.9% | 25.0% | 46.1% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Trabzonspor
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Jabol-Folcarelli | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Aral Şimşir | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Cihan Çanak | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Franculino | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Onuralp Çevikkan | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Arseniy Batagov | Out (injury: Mid November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Ruslan Malinovsky | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Okay Yokuşlu | Out (injury: Late December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Osterhage | Out (injury: About 1-2 weeks) | Injury | 1 source |
| Philipp Treu | Doubtful (injury: Doubtful) | Injury | 1 source |
| Florent Muslija | Out (injury: Late December 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Trabzonspor3rd · 22 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Won 4–0 v Galatasaray (home), 19 Sep
- Won 3–0 v Samsunspor (away), 10 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Beşiktaş (home), 19 Oct
- Won 4–3 v Caykur Rizespor (away), 26 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Gaziantep FK (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 4–2 v KuPS Kuopio (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Won 2–0 v Beşiktaş (home), 19 Oct, Süper Lig
- Won 2–0 v Hearts (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Won 4–3 v Caykur Rizespor (away), 26 Oct, Süper Lig
- Won 2–0 v Gaziantep FK (home), 1 Nov, Süper Lig
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Süper Lig v Gaziantep FK, 1 Nov
SC Freiburg3rd · 16 pts from 8 · 5 days' rest
- Drew 2–2 v Eintracht Frankfurt (away), 19 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Schalke 04 (home), 11 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (away), 18 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Bayern Munich (home), 25 Oct
- Won 2–1 v FC Augsburg (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (away), 18 Oct, Bundesliga
- Lost 0–3 v AS Monaco (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 1–3 v Bayern Munich (home), 25 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 3–2 v VfL Wolfsburg (home), 28 Oct, German Cup
- Won 2–1 v FC Augsburg (away), 31 Oct, Bundesliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Bundesliga v FC Augsburg, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 25%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Trabzonspor win at 29% is far from impossible: about one in 3.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg?
Our model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 46%. Draw 25%, Trabzonspor win 29%.
What is the most likely score in Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg?
1-1 at 12%. The most likely SC Freiburg win is 0-1 (9%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 57% yes, 43% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 55%, under 2.5 goals 45%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 18:13 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 f13dce8b6f83. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling