Saudi Pro League predicted table 2026/27
Al Hilal are favourites at 70% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Calibration warning. The Saudi Pro League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2024–25 and 2025–26 seasons (612 matches), favourites we gave 75% or more won 91% of the time, against 80% forecast. The model is too cautious about the strongest clubs here, so their real chances are probably higher than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.2-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 11 | 30 | 82.4 | 70% | >99% | <1% |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 11 | 28 | 75.8 | 18% | 97% | <1% |
| 3 | Al Qadsiah | 12 | 28 | 73.8 | 10% | 95% | <1% |
| 4 | Al Ahli | 11 | 21 | 65.7 | 1% | 62% | <1% |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 11 | 24 | 63.6 | <1% | 42% | <1% |
| 6 | Neom SC | 12 | 22 | 52.9 | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| 7 | Al Ettifaq | 12 | 19 | 48.3 | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 8 | Al Shabab | 11 | 14 | 47.0 | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 12 | 15 | 40.7 | <1% | <1% | 4% |
| 10 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 15 | 39.0 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 12 | 36.8 | <1% | <1% | 14% |
| 12 | Al Fayha | 12 | 11 | 35.4 | <1% | <1% | 18% |
| 13 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 12 | 34.7 | <1% | <1% | 24% |
| 14 | Al Taawoun | 12 | 5 | 34.3 | <1% | <1% | 23% |
| 15 | Al Hazem | 12 | 10 | 32.6 | <1% | <1% | 33% |
| 16 | Al Fateh | 12 | 6 | 31.6 | <1% | <1% | 40% |
| 17 | Al Faisaly | 12 | 10 | 31.1 | <1% | <1% | 45% |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 3 | 21.2 | <1% | <1% | 93% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal | 70 | 21 | 7 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Nassr | 18 | 39 | 29 | 11 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Qadsiah | 10 | 31 | 38 | 15 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Ahli | 1% | 6 | 16 | 39 | 30 | 7 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Ittihad | <1% | 3 | 10 | 29 | 43 | 11 | 3 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Neom SC | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3 | 12 | 40 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Ettifaq | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4 | 18 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Shabab | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Khaleej | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1% |
| Al Diriyah | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | <1% |
| Al Kholood | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Al Fayha | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Al Riyadh | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 3 |
| Al Taawoun | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 3 |
| Al Hazem | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 5 |
| Al Fateh | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 7 |
| Al Faisaly | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 8 |
| Abha | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 70 |
Movement this week
- Al Shabab+3.9 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +1 pp
- Al Fayha+2.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Al Khaleej+2.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Al Ahli−3.4 ptsTitle −3 · Top 4 −12 pp
- Al Diriyah−2.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Al Ittihad−1.5 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −1 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 11 Aug 2026). We started covering the Saudi Pro League after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen 7e8153c8de3c
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 75.7 | 42% | 1st |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 74.4 | 33% | 3rd |
| 3 | Al Ahli | 69.5 | 13% | 6th |
| 4 | Al Qadsiah | 68.6 | 11% | 2nd |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 57.1 | 1% | 4th |
| 6 | Al Taawoun | 51.8 | <1% | 17th |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 48.4 | <1% | 10th |
| 8 | Al Ettifaq | 46.5 | <1% | 7th |
| 9 | Neom SC | 44.3 | <1% | 5th |
| 10 | Al Fateh | 42.0 | <1% | 16th |
| 11 | Al Khaleej | 39.7 | <1% | 9th |
| 12 | Al Fayha | 38.7 | <1% | 13th |
| 13 | Al Kholood | 35.6 | <1% | 11th |
| 14 | Al Hazem | 35.5 | <1% | 14th |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34.5 | <1% | 12th |
| 16 | Al Faisaly | 32.0 | <1% | 15th |
| 17 | Al Diriyah | 32.0 | <1% | 8th |
| 18 | Abha | 26.6 | <1% | 18th |
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FAQ
Who will win the Saudi Pro League 2026/27?
Our simulations make Al Hilal favourites at 70%, ahead of Al Nassr (18%) and Al Qadsiah (10%). Even at 70%, the favourite misses out about 30% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: Al Hilal >99%, Al Nassr 97%, Al Qadsiah 95%, Al Ahli 62%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 11 Aug 2026). We started covering the Saudi Pro League after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling