Serie A predicted table 2026/27
Internazionale are favourites at 60% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale | 10 | 25 | 82.8 | 60% | 96% | <1% |
| 2 | AS Roma | 10 | 24 | 76.8 | 21% | 85% | <1% |
| 3 | Como | 10 | 23 | 72.0 | 8% | 63% | <1% |
| 4 | Lazio | 10 | 28 | 71.0 | 6% | 57% | <1% |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 21 | 68.2 | 3% | 42% | <1% |
| 6 | Juventus | 10 | 17 | 64.1 | 1% | 21% | <1% |
| 7 | Napoli | 10 | 14 | 63.0 | 1% | 18% | <1% |
| 8 | Frosinone | 10 | 20 | 59.0 | <1% | 8% | <1% |
| 9 | Atalanta | 9 | 11 | 58.7 | <1% | 7% | <1% |
| 10 | Bologna | 10 | 14 | 54.8 | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 13 | 46.3 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
| 12 | Torino | 10 | 13 | 46.1 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
| 13 | Fiorentina | 9 | 5 | 44.1 | <1% | <1% | 7% |
| 14 | Cagliari | 10 | 13 | 43.8 | <1% | <1% | 7% |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 8 | 42.3 | <1% | <1% | 11% |
| 16 | Udinese | 10 | 5 | 36.6 | <1% | <1% | 32% |
| 17 | Lecce | 10 | 9 | 34.2 | <1% | <1% | 47% |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 5 | 33.8 | <1% | <1% | 47% |
| 19 | Monza | 10 | 7 | 31.7 | <1% | <1% | 61% |
| 20 | Venezia | 10 | 3 | 27.1 | <1% | <1% | 83% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internazionale | 60 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AS Roma | 21 | 33 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Como | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lazio | 6 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AC Milan | 3 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Juventus | 1% | 3 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Napoli | 1% | 2 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Frosinone | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Atalanta | <1% | 1% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bologna | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Genoa | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% |
| Torino | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | <1% |
| Fiorentina | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1% |
| Cagliari | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1% |
| Sassuolo | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Udinese | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 7 |
| Lecce | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 10 |
| Parma | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 12 |
| Monza | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 20 |
| Venezia | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 48 |
Movement this week
- Frosinone+7.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +6 pp
- Genoa+4.9 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Bologna+3.4 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +1 pp
- Lecce−3.3 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Torino−3.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −1 pp
- Monza−2.8 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 20 Aug 2026). We started covering Serie A after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen e3361ac8550e
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale | 79.6 | 62% | 2nd |
| 2 | AS Roma | 66.5 | 7% | 3rd |
| 3 | Napoli | 66.1 | 7% | 8th |
| 4 | Como | 65.9 | 7% | 4th |
| 5 | Juventus | 65.8 | 6% | 7th |
| 6 | Atalanta | 65.5 | 6% | 13th |
| 7 | AC Milan | 62.5 | 3% | 5th |
| 8 | Bologna | 55.4 | <1% | 9th |
| 9 | Lazio | 55.3 | <1% | 1st |
| 10 | Fiorentina | 53.7 | <1% | 16th |
| 11 | Udinese | 47.2 | <1% | 19th |
| 12 | Genoa | 46.0 | <1% | 11th |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 45.7 | <1% | 17th |
| 14 | Torino | 45.0 | <1% | 10th |
| 15 | Cagliari | 42.3 | <1% | 12th |
| 16 | Parma | 41.7 | <1% | 15th |
| 17 | Lecce | 36.9 | <1% | 14th |
| 18 | Venezia | 35.6 | <1% | 20th |
| 19 | Frosinone | 35.2 | <1% | 6th |
| 20 | Monza | 33.1 | <1% | 18th |
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FAQ
Who will win the Serie A 2026/27?
Our simulations make Internazionale favourites at 60%, ahead of AS Roma (21%) and Como (8%). Even at 60%, the favourite misses out about 40% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: Internazionale 96%, AS Roma 85%, Como 63%, Lazio 57%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 20 Aug 2026). We started covering Serie A after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling