Süper Lig predicted table 2026/27
Galatasaray are favourites at 75% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 10 | 25 | 75.5 | 75% | 99% | <1% |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 10 | 16 | 64.2 | 8% | 78% | <1% |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 10 | 22 | 64.1 | 8% | 76% | <1% |
| 4 | Amed SFK | 10 | 23 | 62.2 | 5% | 65% | <1% |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 10 | 19 | 59.8 | 2% | 50% | <1% |
| 6 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 10 | 14 | 51.7 | <1% | 10% | <1% |
| 7 | Göztepe | 10 | 15 | 50.0 | <1% | 8% | <1% |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 10 | 16 | 49.0 | <1% | 6% | 1% |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 10 | 17 | 48.0 | <1% | 4% | 1% |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 10 | 16 | 45.3 | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 12 | 43.3 | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| 12 | Caykur Rizespor | 10 | 11 | 39.9 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 13 | Erzurum BB | 10 | 14 | 36.7 | <1% | <1% | 27% |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 10 | 8 | 36.6 | <1% | <1% | 25% |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği | 9 | 8 | 35.0 | <1% | <1% | 37% |
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 10 | 8 | 33.0 | <1% | <1% | 48% |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 10 | 4 | 33.0 | <1% | <1% | 49% |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 10 | 3 | 24.6 | <1% | <1% | 91% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 75 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fenerbahçe | 8 | 28 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Trabzonspor | 8 | 25 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Amed SFK | 5 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Beşiktaş | 2 | 10 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | <1% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Göztepe | <1% | 1% | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Çorum FK | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kasımpaşa | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kocaelispor | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% |
| Alanyaspor | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | <1% |
| Caykur Rizespor | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| Erzurum BB | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 3 |
| Konyaspor | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 4 |
| Gençlerbirliği | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 6 |
| Gaziantep FK | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 10 |
| Samsunspor | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 11 |
| Eyüpspor | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 65 |
Movement this week
- Göztepe+3.4 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +3 pp
- Galatasaray+3.1 ptsTitle +19 · Top 4 +1 pp
- Çorum FK+3.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +2 pp
- Fenerbahçe−4.1 ptsTitle −22 · Top 4 −15 pp
- Erzurum BB−2.8 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Konyaspor−1.9 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 12 Aug 2026). We started covering Süper Lig after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen 041f16d836a1
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 73.1 | 56% | 1st |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 70.0 | 35% | 6th |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 57.8 | 3% | 4th |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 57.0 | 3% | 3rd |
| 5 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 56.3 | 2% | 10th |
| 6 | Göztepe | 49.9 | <1% | 9th |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 48.6 | <1% | 17th |
| 8 | Alanyaspor | 45.5 | <1% | 12th |
| 9 | Konyaspor | 44.0 | <1% | 15th |
| 10 | Caykur Rizespor | 43.6 | <1% | 13th |
| 11 | Kasımpaşa | 42.5 | <1% | 5th |
| 12 | Eyüpspor | 42.5 | <1% | 18th |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği | 40.9 | <1% | 14th |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 39.4 | <1% | 16th |
| 15 | Kocaelispor | 39.0 | <1% | 8th |
| 16 | Çorum FK | 32.0 | <1% | 7th |
| 17 | Amed SFK | 31.9 | <1% | 2nd |
| 18 | Erzurum BB | 31.8 | <1% | 11th |
Share and cite
Free to reuse with a link back (CC BY 4.0). The image and data update every Monday.
FAQ
Who will win the Süper Lig 2026/27?
Our simulations make Galatasaray favourites at 75%, ahead of Fenerbahçe (8%) and Trabzonspor (8%). Even at 75%, the favourite misses out about 25% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: Galatasaray 99%, Fenerbahçe 78%, Trabzonspor 76%, Amed SFK 65%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 12 Aug 2026). We started covering Süper Lig after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling