Galatasaray 2–0 VfB Stuttgart: our model backed Galatasaray (correct)
6dddca4e0e7fPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Galatasaray win (41%). Final score 2–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-0. The most likely Galatasaray win is 2-1 (8%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 67% chance; the match had 2 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 68% chance.
RPS for this match0.234Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 15 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Galatasaray the pick at 41% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-0 had a 5.0% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.234, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Galatasaray a 41% chance of beating VfB Stuttgart at RAMS Park, with the draw at 24% and VfB Stuttgart at 35%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%); the most likely Galatasaray win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Galatasaray | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 41.3% | 23.5% | 35.2% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 41.3% | 23.5% | 35.2% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Galatasaray1st · 25 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Trabzonspor (away), 19 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Kasımpaşa (home), 9 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Gençlerbirliği (away), 17 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Fenerbahçe (home), 26 Oct
- Won 4–0 v Konyaspor (away), 30 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 1–4 v Barcelona (home), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 1–0 v Gençlerbirliği (away), 17 Oct, Süper Lig
- Won 4–2 v Lille (away), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–1 v Fenerbahçe (home), 26 Oct, Süper Lig
- Won 4–0 v Konyaspor (away), 30 Oct, Süper Lig
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Süper Lig v Konyaspor, 30 Oct
VfB Stuttgart11th · 9 pts from 8 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–1 v Borussia Dortmund (home), 19 Sep
- Won 2–0 v SC Paderborn (away), 10 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Hamburger SV (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 2–3 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (home), 23 Oct
- Won 4–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v Hamburger SV (away), 17 Oct, Bundesliga
- Drew 1–1 v Atlético Madrid (home), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 2–3 v Borussia Mönchengladbach (home), 23 Oct, Bundesliga
- Won 1–0 v SC Paderborn (away), 28 Oct, German Cup
- Won 4–2 v Bayer Leverkusen (away), 31 Oct, Bundesliga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Bundesliga v Bayer Leverkusen, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart?
Galatasaray 2–0 VfB Stuttgart after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Galatasaray the pick at 41%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (10%). The actual 2-0 had a 5.0% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.234.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 6dddca4e0e7f and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling