Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Sporting CP: our model backed Sporting CP (correct)
24964c8b7880Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Sporting CP win (57%). Final score 0–1.
Exact score matched
Most likely score 0-1, actual 0-1. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: no
We gave over 2.5 a 54% chance; the match had 1 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 54% chance.
RPS for this match0.111Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 15 hours 33 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 0–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Sporting CP the pick at 57% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 0-1; the actual 0-1 had a 11.1% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.111, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites at 57% away to Shakhtar Donetsk, with the draw at 23% and a Shakhtar Donetsk win at 20%. The most likely score is 0-1 (11%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Sporting CP | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 19.6% | 23.1% | 57.3% | 0-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 19.6% | 23.1% | 57.3% | 0-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Shakhtar Donetsk21st · 4 pts from 4 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v PSV Eindhoven (away), 10 Sep
- Won 3–1 v AEK Athens (home), 14 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Internazionale (away), 21 Oct
Last 3 Champions League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–1 v FC Kolos Kovalivka (home), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–1 v Internazionale (away), 21 Oct, Champions League
- Drew 0–0 v Zorya (home), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–0 v Dynamo Kyiv (home), 27 Oct, Cup
- Won 2–0 v Obolon Kyiv (home), 30 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Obolon Kyiv, 30 Oct
Sporting CP3rd · 21 pts from 10 · 4 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Famalicão (away), 13 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Arouca (home), 19 Sep
- Won 3–1 v Braga (away), 9 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Académico de Viseu (home), 25 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Casa Pia (away), 30 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Lens (away), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 2–3 v LASK Linz (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 1–2 v Académico de Viseu (home), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 2–1 v Marítimo (home), 27 Oct, Taca da Liga
- Won 2–0 v Casa Pia (away), 30 Oct, Primeira Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Primeira Liga v Casa Pia, 30 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Sporting CP after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Sporting CP the pick at 57%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 0-1 (11%). The actual 0-1 had a 11.1% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.111.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 24964c8b7880 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling