Getafe vs Brighton prediction: our model backs Brighton
Quick answer
Our model makes Brighton favourites at 55% away to Getafe, with the draw at 26% and a Getafe win at 19%. The most likely score is 0-1 (16%). Medium confidence.
Match prediction
Forecast locked ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Most likely scores
0-1 is both the single most likely score and the most likely Brighton win.
Full score grid and top 5
| Getafe goals by Brighton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | <0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
| 5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 |
Top 5 scores
- 0-116.0%
- 0-211.9%
- 1-111.7%
- 0-010.4%
- 1-28.9%
Model panel
| Model | Getafe | Draw | Brighton | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 18.7% | 25.8% | 55.5% | 0-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 18.7% | 25.8% | 55.5% | 0-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelStatistical forecast
No reviewed analysis for this match. The probabilities come from the statistical model only and are not adjusted for team news. The team news below lists each absence with its sources.
Team news
Checked . Team news does not change the published probabilities.
Getafe
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zaid Abner Romero | Out (injury: Back in training) | Injury | 1 source |
| Christantus Uche | Out (injury: Out for season) | Injury | 1 source |
| Juanmi | Out (injury: Unknown) | Injury | 1 source |
Brighton
| Player | Status | Detail | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu | Out (injury: Back in training) | Injury | 1 source |
| Stefanos Tzimas | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Pascal Struijk | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Evan Ferguson | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Femi Azeez | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Kaoru Mitoma | Out (injury: Late November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
| Zadok Yohanna | Out (injury: Early November 2026) | Injury | 1 source |
Markets
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
From the same score grid as the result probabilities. All Over/Under picksAll BTTS picks
Recent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Getafe13th · 12 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Málaga (home), 20 Sep
- Lost 0–3 v Barcelona (away), 10 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Rayo Vallecano (home), 19 Oct
- Lost 0–4 v Athletic Club (away), 25 Oct
- Won 3–1 v Sevilla (home), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 1–1 v Rayo Vallecano (home), 19 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 2–5 v FC Lugano (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 0–4 v Athletic Club (away), 25 Oct, La Liga
- Won 3–2 v UB Lebrijana (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey
- Won 3–1 v Sevilla (home), 1 Nov, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Sevilla, 1 Nov
Brighton3rd · 19 pts from 9 · 5 days' rest
- Won 3–0 v Arsenal (home), 19 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Sunderland (away), 10 Oct
- Won 5–0 v Crystal Palace (home), 18 Oct
- Lost 0–2 v Liverpool (away), 25 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Manchester City (away), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 5–0 v Crystal Palace (home), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 0–0 v Jablonec (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 0–2 v Liverpool (away), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 2–2 v Manchester City (away), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup, lost 3–4 on penalties
- Won 1–0 v Manchester City (away), 31 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Manchester City, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
What could go wrong
- A draw is 26%: roughly one in 4 matches with these numbers ends level.
- A Getafe win at 19% is far from impossible: about one in 5.
- Team news after the lock can change the picture. The locked numbers do not move; we grade the forecast as published.
FAQ
Who will win Getafe vs Brighton?
Our model makes Brighton the favourite at 55%. Draw 26%, Getafe win 19%.
What is the most likely score in Getafe vs Brighton?
0-1 at 16%. The most likely Brighton win is 0-1 (16%).
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: 41% yes, 59% no.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals 39%, under 2.5 goals 61%.
When was this prediction made?
It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 20:09 UTC, 24 hours before kickoff, with sha256 878b1bca9908. It cannot be changed afterwards and is graded after full time.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling