Eredivisie predicted table 2026/27
PSV Eindhoven are favourites at 56% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Calibration warning. Eredivisie fails our calibration check. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (1,223 matches), when the result we rated most likely had less than 45% (close matches), it came in 33% of the time, against 40% forecast. The model is too confident in close matches here, so its pick is probably less likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.2-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 23 | 75.0 | 56% | 99% | <1% |
| 2 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 11 | 25 | 72.0 | 29% | 96% | <1% |
| 3 | Ajax Amsterdam | 11 | 24 | 66.6 | 8% | 84% | <1% |
| 4 | FC Twente | 11 | 23 | 65.4 | 6% | 80% | <1% |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 20 | 58.0 | 1% | 29% | <1% |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 11 | 18 | 50.3 | <1% | 5% | <1% |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 19 | 47.1 | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 11 | 15 | 46.2 | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 | FC Utrecht | 11 | 12 | 45.2 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 11 | 45.0 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 14 | 43.4 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 | SC Cambuur | 11 | 15 | 40.9 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 12 | 39.5 | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| 14 | Telstar | 11 | 9 | 38.9 | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 11 | 35.9 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 11 | 34.9 | <1% | <1% | 16% |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 11 | 6 | 28.5 | <1% | <1% | 56% |
| 18 | Willem II | 11 | 2 | 16.1 | <1% | <1% | 99% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 56 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 29 | 36 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 19 | 30 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| FC Twente | 6 | 15 | 28 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1% | 2 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Heerenveen | <1% | <1% | 1 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fortuna Sittard | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% |
| FC Groningen | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% |
| FC Utrecht | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% |
| NEC Nijmegen | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | <1% |
| SC Cambuur | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | <1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 4 | <1% |
| Telstar | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 5 | <1% |
| Excelsior | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 1% |
| PEC Zwolle | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 1% |
| ADO Den Haag | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 50 | 6 |
| Willem II | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 7 | 92 |
Movement this week
- SC Cambuur+4.6 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- FC Twente+3.4 ptsTitle +4 · Top 4 +18 pp
- Telstar+2.8 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Excelsior−3.5 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
- Go Ahead Eagles−2.8 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −2 pp
- FC Groningen−2.3 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −2 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 5 Aug 2026). We started covering Eredivisie after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen b934a625f309
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 75.4 | 71% | 3rd |
| 2 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 65.9 | 15% | 1st |
| 3 | Ajax Amsterdam | 61.3 | 6% | 2nd |
| 4 | FC Twente | 58.2 | 3% | 4th |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 55.2 | 1% | 5th |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 54.9 | 1% | 13th |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 53.6 | 1% | 12th |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 47.0 | <1% | 10th |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 45.3 | <1% | 7th |
| 10 | Telstar | 45.2 | <1% | 16th |
| 11 | FC Groningen | 43.7 | <1% | 8th |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 41.0 | <1% | 11th |
| 13 | Excelsior | 39.2 | <1% | 15th |
| 14 | Fortuna Sittard | 37.5 | <1% | 6th |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 36.0 | <1% | 14th |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 32.1 | <1% | 17th |
| 17 | Willem II | 31.3 | <1% | 18th |
| 18 | SC Cambuur | 29.5 | <1% | 9th |
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FAQ
Who will win the Eredivisie 2026/27?
Our simulations make PSV Eindhoven favourites at 56%, ahead of Feyenoord Rotterdam (29%) and Ajax Amsterdam (8%). Even at 56%, the favourite misses out about 44% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: PSV Eindhoven 99%, Feyenoord Rotterdam 96%, Ajax Amsterdam 84%, FC Twente 80%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 5 Aug 2026). We started covering Eredivisie after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling