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La Liga predicted table 2026/27

Updated · 10,000 simulations · 20 clubs

Barcelona are favourites at 75% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.

Predicted table

#ClubPPtsExp. ptsTitleTop 4Relegation
1Barcelona113091.275%>99%<1%
2Real Madrid112784.320%>99%<1%
3Atlético Madrid112877.75%97%<1%
4Real Betis112365.6<1%58%<1%
5Real Sociedad111957.3<1%13%<1%
6Athletic Club101556.4<1%12%<1%
7Villarreal111256.3<1%12%<1%
8Sevilla111752.7<1%4%1%
9Celta Vigo111247.9<1%1%5%
10Rayo Vallecano101247.7<1%1%6%
11Elche111045.1<1%<1%12%
12Alavés111245.0<1%<1%11%
13Levante111044.5<1%<1%14%
14Espanyol111144.1<1%<1%13%
15Osasuna101143.9<1%<1%16%
16Deportivo La Coruña101143.9<1%<1%15%
17Getafe111243.1<1%<1%18%
18Valencia11942.1<1%<1%22%
19Racing Santander111133.4<1%<1%74%
20Málaga11527.7<1%<1%92%

Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.

Finishing position probabilities

Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.

Club1234567891011121314151617181920
Barcelona75205<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Real Madrid2056212<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Atlético Madrid522591121%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Real Betis<1%21145201063211%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Real Sociedad<1%<1%111201714108543221%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Athletic Club<1%<1%1111718141186433211%<1%<1%<1%<1%
Villarreal<1%<1%1111816141186433211%1%<1%<1%<1%
Sevilla<1%<1%<1%4912121210987543221%<1%<1%
Celta Vigo<1%<1%<1%13578910999766541<1%
Rayo Vallecano<1%<1%<1%1356899998876642<1%
Elche<1%<1%<1%<1%1346788899988741
Alavés<1%<1%<1%<1%1345778999998731%
Levante<1%<1%<1%<1%1246678889999851
Espanyol<1%<1%<1%<1%1%235678999999841
Osasuna<1%<1%<1%<1%1%234567991091010952
Deportivo La Coruña<1%<1%<1%<1%123467789910109851
Getafe<1%<1%<1%<1%1%12456788101011111062
Valencia<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%234567891110111282
Racing Santander<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%1%123469163524
Málaga<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%12382164

Movement this week

  • Espanyol+3.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
  • Rayo Vallecano+2.6 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +1 pp
  • Getafe+2.2 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
  • Villarreal−2.6 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −8 pp
  • Elche−2.3 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −1 pp
  • Celta Vigo−2.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −1 pp

Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).

Frozen pre-season forecast

It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 13 Aug 2026). We started covering La Liga after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen d006bcdd4409

#ClubExp. ptsTitleNow
1Barcelona81.660%1st
2Real Madrid77.131%3rd
3Atlético Madrid66.65%2nd
4Villarreal65.03%9th
5Real Betis58.71%4th
6Athletic Club54.5<1%7th
7Celta Vigo54.2<1%10th
8Real Sociedad52.6<1%5th
9Osasuna49.3<1%15th
10Rayo Vallecano49.2<1%12th
11Valencia49.2<1%19th
12Getafe48.1<1%13th
13Elche47.1<1%17th
14Sevilla46.7<1%6th
15Levante46.4<1%18th
16Alavés46.3<1%11th
17Espanyol45.7<1%14th
18Racing Santander36.8<1%16th
19Deportivo La Coruña36.8<1%8th
20Málaga36.7<1%20th

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La Liga predicted table 2026/27, updated 2 Nov 2026
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Free to reuse with a link back (CC BY 4.0). The image and data update every Monday.

FAQ

Who will win the La Liga 2026/27?

Our simulations make Barcelona favourites at 75%, ahead of Real Madrid (20%) and Atlético Madrid (5%). Even at 75%, the favourite misses out about 25% of the time.

Who will finish in the top four?

Highest top-four chances: Barcelona >99%, Real Madrid >99%, Atlético Madrid 97%, Real Betis 58%.

How is the predicted table calculated?

We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.

How accurate is the pre-season forecast?

It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 13 Aug 2026). We started covering La Liga after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling