Bundesliga predicted table 2026/27
Bayern Munich are favourites at 89% to win the title. Expected points, title and top-four chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 18 | 80.0 | 89% | >99% | <1% |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 18 | 67.8 | 9% | 93% | <1% |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 15 | 60.6 | 1% | 69% | <1% |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 13 | 59.1 | 1% | 60% | <1% |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 9 | 53.2 | <1% | 27% | <1% |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 16 | 52.8 | <1% | 24% | <1% |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 15 | 47.1 | <1% | 7% | 1% |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 11 | 46.7 | <1% | 7% | 1% |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 13 | 46.2 | <1% | 5% | 2% |
| 10 | TSG Hoffenheim | 8 | 9 | 44.3 | <1% | 4% | 3% |
| 11 | Mainz 05 | 8 | 10 | 43.6 | <1% | 3% | 3% |
| 12 | FC Augsburg | 8 | 9 | 40.5 | <1% | 1% | 8% |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 9 | 36.9 | <1% | <1% | 21% |
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 9 | 36.7 | <1% | <1% | 21% |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 8 | 9 | 36.0 | <1% | <1% | 23% |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 7 | 35.1 | <1% | <1% | 29% |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 4 | 34.4 | <1% | <1% | 32% |
| 18 | Schalke 04 | 8 | 6 | 30.5 | <1% | <1% | 55% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 89 | 9 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 53 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RB Leipzig | 1 | 18 | 29 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1% | 12 | 23 | 24 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VfB Stuttgart | <1% | 3 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SC Freiburg | <1% | 3 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Werder Bremen | <1% | <1% | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1% | <1% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | <1% | <1% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1% | 1% |
| SV Elversberg | <1% | <1% | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Mainz 05 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| FC Augsburg | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Hamburger SV | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 1. FC Köln | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| SC Paderborn | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| Union Berlin | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| Schalke 04 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 35 |
Movement this week
- SV Elversberg+4.9 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +4 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+2.5 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +8 pp
- Werder Bremen+1.9 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 +2 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen−2.7 ptsTitle −1 · Top 4 −16 pp
- Mainz 05−2.3 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 −4 pp
- Schalke 04−2.1 ptsTitle ±0 · Top 4 ±0 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and top-four chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 26 Aug 2026). We started covering Bundesliga after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen 974a1348629a
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 80.6 | 87% | 1st |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 64.9 | 6% | 2nd |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 63.0 | 4% | 6th |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 58.3 | 1% | 11th |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 57.6 | 1% | 4th |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 50.0 | <1% | 8th |
| 7 | TSG Hoffenheim | 48.1 | <1% | 12th |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 46.7 | <1% | 9th |
| 9 | SC Freiburg | 45.3 | <1% | 3rd |
| 10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 43.9 | <1% | 18th |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 40.9 | <1% | 15th |
| 12 | Union Berlin | 40.3 | <1% | 16th |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 39.9 | <1% | 5th |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 39.7 | <1% | 10th |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 39.5 | <1% | 13th |
| 16 | SV Elversberg | 31.9 | <1% | 7th |
| 17 | SC Paderborn | 31.8 | <1% | 14th |
| 18 | Schalke 04 | 30.7 | <1% | 17th |
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FAQ
Who will win the Bundesliga 2026/27?
Our simulations make Bayern Munich favourites at 89%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (9%) and RB Leipzig (1%). Even at 89%, the favourite misses out about 11% of the time.
Who will finish in the top four?
Highest top-four chances: Bayern Munich >99%, Borussia Dortmund 93%, RB Leipzig 69%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 26 Aug 2026). We started covering Bundesliga after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling