Barcelona 3–0 Aston Villa: our model backed Barcelona (correct)
5d1dea1e71f1Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Barcelona win (55%). Final score 3–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-1, actual 3-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 72% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 69% chance.
RPS for this match0.130Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 48 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Barcelona the pick at 55% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-1; the actual 3-0 had a 4.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.130, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Barcelona a 55% chance of beating Aston Villa at Spotify Camp Nou, with the draw at 21% and Aston Villa at 24%. The most likely score is 2-1 (8%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Barcelona | Draw | Aston Villa | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 55.0% | 21.2% | 23.8% | 2-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 55.0% | 21.2% | 23.8% | 2-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Barcelona1st · 30 pts from 11 · 3 days' rest
- Won 3–1 v Sevilla (away), 19 Sep
- Won 3–0 v Getafe (home), 10 Oct
- Won 5–2 v Real Betis (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Real Madrid (home), 25 Oct
- Won 6–1 v Alavés (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 4–1 v Galatasaray (away), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 5–2 v Real Betis (away), 17 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 2–4 v Paris Saint-Germain (away), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 1–2 v Real Madrid (home), 25 Oct, La Liga
- Won 6–1 v Alavés (home), 31 Oct, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Alavés, 31 Oct
Aston Villa10th · 12 pts from 9 · 3 days' rest
- Won 3–2 v Tottenham Hotspur (away), 19 Sep
- Drew 2–2 v Brentford (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Newcastle United (away), 17 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Manchester City (home), 24 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Fulham (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v Newcastle United (away), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Won 3–1 v Viking FK (home), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–1 v Manchester City (home), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 0–3 v Bournemouth (away), 28 Oct, Carabao Cup
- Drew 1–1 v Fulham (home), 31 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Fulham, 31 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Barcelona vs Aston Villa?
Barcelona 3–0 Aston Villa after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Barcelona vs Aston Villa correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Barcelona the pick at 55%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-1 (8%). The actual 3-0 had a 4.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.130.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 3 Nov 2026 02:11 UTC with sha256 5d1dea1e71f1 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling