FC Groningen 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam: our model backed FC Groningen (missed)
3ba8d74d514bPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted FC Groningen win (48%). Final score 2–3.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-3. The most likely FC Groningen win is 2-1 (9%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 58% chance; the match had 5 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 60% chance.
RPS for this match0.390Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. Eredivisie fails our calibration check. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (1,223 matches), when the result we rated most likely had less than 45% (close matches), it came in 33% of the time, against 40% forecast. The model is too confident in close matches here, so its pick is probably less likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.2-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 3 hours 58 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–3.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made FC Groningen the pick at 48% to win. It went the other way: Sparta Rotterdam won. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-3 had a 2.5% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.390, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives FC Groningen a 48% chance of beating Sparta Rotterdam at Euroborg, with the draw at 26% and Sparta Rotterdam at 26%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%); the most likely FC Groningen win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | FC Groningen | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 47.9% | 26.3% | 25.8% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 47.9% | 26.3% | 25.8% | 1-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
FC Groningen8th · 15 pts from 11 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Go Ahead Eagles (away), 12 Sep
- Won 3–0 v PEC Zwolle (home), 18 Sep
- Won 5–1 v Excelsior (away), 11 Oct
- Lost 2–5 v Ajax Amsterdam (home), 18 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v NEC Nijmegen (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–0 v PEC Zwolle (home), 18 Sep, Eredivisie
- Won 5–1 v Excelsior (away), 11 Oct, Eredivisie
- Lost 2–5 v Ajax Amsterdam (home), 18 Oct, Eredivisie
- Drew 2–2 v NEC Nijmegen (away), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Lost 0–2 v FC Emmen (home), 29 Oct, KNVB Beker
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from KNVB Beker v FC Emmen, 29 Oct
Sparta Rotterdam11th · 12 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 1–4 v PSV Eindhoven (away), 13 Sep
- Lost 0–4 v Heerenveen (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 3–3 v Go Ahead Eagles (away), 10 Oct
- Won 3–2 v Willem II (home), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Ajax Amsterdam (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–4 v Heerenveen (home), 19 Sep, Eredivisie
- Drew 3–3 v Go Ahead Eagles (away), 10 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 3–2 v Willem II (home), 17 Oct, Eredivisie
- Lost 1–2 v Ajax Amsterdam (home), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Drew 2–2 v Fortuna Sittard (home), 28 Oct, KNVB Beker, lost 2–3 on penalties
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from KNVB Beker v Fortuna Sittard, 28 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 – 0 | FC Groningen |
| 30 Oct 2025KNVB Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 – 2 | FC Groningen |
| 19 Oct 2025 | FC Groningen | 0 – 2 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 – 0 | FC Groningen |
| 9 Nov 2024 | FC Groningen | 1 – 0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
FAQ
What was the result of FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
FC Groningen 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made FC Groningen the pick at 48%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (12%). The actual 2-3 had a 2.5% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.390.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 11:46 UTC with sha256 3ba8d74d514b and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling