Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad: AI backed Athletic Club (correct)
2f467f8cbc92Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Athletic Club win (46%). Final score 2–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-1, actual 2-1. The most likely Athletic Club win is 1-0 (10%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 50% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 54% chance.
RPS for this match0.182Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 27 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 2–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Athletic Club the pick at 46% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-1; the actual 2-1 had a 8.9% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.182, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Athletic Club a 46% chance of beating Real Sociedad at San Mamés, with the draw at 27% and Real Sociedad at 27%. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%); the most likely Athletic Club win is 1-0. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Athletic Club | Draw | Real Sociedad | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 46.1% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 1-1 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 46.1% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 1-1 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 46.1% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 1-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 46.1% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 1-1 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Athletic Club7th · 15 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 1–1 v Elche (home), 12 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Alavés (home), 19 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Valencia (away), 17 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Levante (away), 21 Oct
- Won 4–0 v Getafe (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Drew 0–0 v Alavés (home), 19 Sep, La Liga
- Drew 0–0 v Valencia (away), 17 Oct, La Liga
- Lost 1–3 v Levante (away), 21 Oct, La Liga
- Won 4–0 v Getafe (home), 25 Oct, La Liga
- Won 6–1 v AE Prat (away), 29 Oct, Copa del Rey
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Copa del Rey v AE Prat, 29 Oct
Real Sociedad5th · 19 pts from 11 · 7 days' rest
- Lost 0–3 v Atlético Madrid (home), 13 Sep
- Won 3–2 v Valencia (away), 20 Sep
- Won 3–2 v Deportivo La Coruña (home), 11 Oct
- Won 5–2 v Málaga (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–1 v Levante (home), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 3–2 v Deportivo La Coruña (home), 11 Oct, La Liga
- Drew 1–1 v Union St.-Gilloise (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 5–2 v Málaga (away), 18 Oct, La Liga
- Won 6–0 v Lillestrom (away), 22 Oct, UEFA Europa League
- Won 2–1 v Levante (home), 25 Oct, La Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from La Liga v Levante, 25 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026Copa del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 – 0 | Athletic Club |
| 11 Feb 2026Copa del Rey | Athletic Club | 0 – 1 | Real Sociedad |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Athletic Club | 1 – 1 | Real Sociedad |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Real Sociedad | 3 – 2 | Athletic Club |
| 4 May 2025 | Real Sociedad | 0 – 0 | Athletic Club |
FAQ
What was the result of Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Athletic Club the pick at 46%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-1 (13%). The actual 2-1 had a 8.9% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.182.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 02:33 UTC with sha256 2f467f8cbc92 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling