Braga 3–0 Famalicão: AI backed Braga (correct)
60a77da72342Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Braga win (51%). Final score 3–0.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 1-0, actual 3-0. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 45% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: no
We gave both teams to score a 48% chance.
RPS for this match0.148Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 17 hours 57 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 3–0.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Braga the pick at 51% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 1-0; the actual 3-0 had a 4.6% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.148, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Braga a 51% chance of beating Famalicão at Estádio Municipal de Braga, with the draw at 25% and Famalicão at 24%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%). Medium confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Braga | Draw | Famalicão | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 51.0% | 25.3% | 23.7% | 1-0 |
| ClaudeAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 50.0% | 26.0% | 24.0% | 1-0 |
| CodexAI analyst · shadowAI analysts' view – not part of the published probability | 51.0% | 25.3% | 23.7% | 1-0 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 51.0% | 25.3% | 23.7% | 1-0 |
Both AI analysts pick the same result as the model. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Braga8th · 14 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Won 1–0 v Estoril Praia (home), 14 Sep
- Drew 0–0 v Santa Clara (away), 20 Sep
- Lost 1–3 v Sporting CP (home), 9 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Gil Vicente (home), 19 Oct
- Lost 0–1 v Nacional (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–3 v F.C. København (away), 15 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 1–2 v Gil Vicente (home), 19 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Won 2–0 v KAA Gent (home), 22 Oct, UEFA Conference League
- Lost 0–1 v Nacional (away), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Drew 2–2 v Famalicão (home), 29 Oct, Taca da Liga, lost 1–3 on penalties
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Famalicão, 29 Oct
Famalicão11th · 10 pts from 10 · 3 days' rest
- Drew 2–2 v Estrela da Amadora (away), 5 Sep
- Drew 1–1 v Sporting CP (home), 13 Sep
- Won 4–0 v Nacional (away), 19 Sep
- Lost 1–4 v Alverca (home), 12 Oct
- Won 4–0 v Rio Ave (away), 25 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 4–0 v Nacional (away), 19 Sep, Primeira Liga
- Lost 1–4 v Alverca (home), 12 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Lost 0–1 v Paredes (away), 18 Oct, Taca de Portugal
- Won 4–0 v Rio Ave (away), 25 Oct, Primeira Liga
- Drew 2–2 v Braga (away), 29 Oct, Taca da Liga, won 3–1 on penalties
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Taca da Liga v Braga, 29 Oct
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026Taca da Liga | Braga | 2 – 21–3 pens | Famalicão |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Braga | 2 – 2 | Famalicão |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Famalicão | 1 – 2 | Braga |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Famalicão | 1 – 1 | Braga |
| 16 Dec 2024 | Braga | 3 – 3 | Famalicão |
FAQ
What was the result of Braga vs Famalicão?
Braga 3–0 Famalicão after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Braga vs Famalicão correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Braga the pick at 51%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 1-0 (14%). The actual 3-0 had a 4.6% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.148.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 1 Nov 2026 02:33 UTC with sha256 60a77da72342 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling