PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Club Brugge: our model backed PSV Eindhoven (missed)
0001ef19b24dPrediction outcome
Result pick missed
We predicted PSV Eindhoven win (47%). Final score 1–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-2, actual 1-2. The most likely PSV Eindhoven win is 2-1 (7%). A win is spread over many scores (1-0, 2-1, 2-0…), a draw over a few, so the single top score can be a draw even when a win is the pick. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 78% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 76% chance.
RPS for this match0.343Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 18 hours 26 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made PSV Eindhoven the pick at 47% to win. It went the other way: Club Brugge won. The most likely score in our grid was 2-2; the actual 1-2 had a 6.3% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.343, worse than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives PSV Eindhoven a 47% chance of beating Club Brugge at Philips Stadion, with the draw at 22% and Club Brugge at 31%. The single most likely score is 2-2 (8%); the most likely PSV Eindhoven win is 2-1. Low confidence.
Model panel
| Model | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Club Brugge | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 46.7% | 21.7% | 31.6% | 2-2 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 46.7% | 21.7% | 31.6% | 2-2 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
PSV Eindhoven3rd · 23 pts from 11 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v FC Twente (away), 20 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Heerenveen (home), 9 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v ADO Den Haag (away), 17 Oct
- Drew 1–1 v Feyenoord Rotterdam (home), 25 Oct
- Won 7–0 v Willem II (home), 31 Oct
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Lost 0–1 v RB Leipzig (away), 13 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Lost 1–2 v ADO Den Haag (away), 17 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 1–0 v Porto (away), 20 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Drew 1–1 v Feyenoord Rotterdam (home), 25 Oct, Eredivisie
- Won 7–0 v Willem II (home), 31 Oct, Eredivisie
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Eredivisie v Willem II, 31 Oct
Club Brugge9th · 9 pts from 4 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v Aston Villa (home), 8 Sep
- Won 4–3 v Internazionale (away), 13 Oct
- Won 3–0 v Lens (home), 21 Oct
Last 3 Champions League matches, latest on the right
- Won 4–3 v Internazionale (away), 13 Oct, Champions League
- Won 1–0 v KSC Lokeren (home), 17 Oct, Cup
- Won 3–0 v Lens (home), 21 Oct, Champions League
- Won 3–2 v Sint-Truidense (home), 25 Oct, Belgian Pro League
- Won 4–2 v Zulte-Waregem (away), 30 Oct, Belgian Pro League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Belgian Pro League v Zulte-Waregem, 30 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge?
PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Club Brugge after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge correctly?
No. Our locked forecast made PSV Eindhoven the pick at 47%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-2 (8%). The actual 1-2 had a 6.3% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.343.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 0001ef19b24d and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling