Viking FK 4–1 Sabah FK: our model backed Viking FK (correct)
c92a698ce115Prediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Viking FK win (72%). Final score 4–1.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 2-1, actual 4-1. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 74% chance; the match had 5 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 61% chance.
RPS for this match0.045Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 18 hours 26 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 4–1.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Viking FK the pick at 72% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 2-1; the actual 4-1 had a 5.7% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.045, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model gives Viking FK a 72% chance of beating Sabah FK at Viking Stadion, with the draw at 16% and Sabah FK at 12%. The most likely score is 2-1 (8%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Viking FK | Draw | Sabah FK | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 72.3% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 2-1 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 72.3% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 2-1 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Viking FK22nd · 4 pts from 4 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 1–3 v VfB Stuttgart (away), 9 Sep
- Drew 3–3 v Bayern Munich (home), 13 Oct
- Lost 1–3 v Aston Villa (away), 21 Oct
Last 3 Champions League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 3–3 v Bayern Munich (home), 13 Oct, Champions League
- Won 3–2 v Fredrikstad (home), 17 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
- Lost 1–3 v Aston Villa (away), 21 Oct, Champions League
- Won 3–1 v Tromso (home), 25 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
- Lost 2–3 v Bodo/Glimt (away), 30 Oct, Norwegian Eliteserien
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Norwegian Eliteserien v Bodo/Glimt, 30 Oct
Sabah FK31st · 3 pts from 4 · 5 days' rest
- Lost 0–4 v Manchester United (away), 10 Sep
- Won 2–0 v Slavia Prague (home), 13 Oct
- Lost 1–2 v Borussia Dortmund (home), 20 Oct
Last 3 Champions League matches, latest on the right
- Won 2–0 v Slavia Prague (home), 13 Oct, Champions League
- Won 4–0 v FK Qabala (away), 17 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 1–2 v Borussia Dortmund (home), 20 Oct, Champions League
- Drew 0–0 v Qarabağ FK (home), 25 Oct, Premier League
- Lost 2–3 v Turan Tovuz (away), 30 Oct, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Turan Tovuz, 30 Oct
Head-to-head
These clubs have not met since 2021/22, the start of our results data. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
FAQ
What was the result of Viking FK vs Sabah FK?
Viking FK 4–1 Sabah FK after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Viking FK vs Sabah FK correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Viking FK the pick at 72%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 2-1 (8%). The actual 4-1 had a 5.7% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.045.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 c92a698ce115 and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling