Slavia Prague 1–2 Arsenal: our model backed Arsenal (correct)
558b2bc3525aPrediction outcome
Result pick correct
We predicted Arsenal win (82%). Final score 1–2.
Exact score not matched
Most likely score 0-2, actual 1-2. Exact scores land about one time in eight, so this is shown for reference.
Over 2.5 goals: yes
We gave over 2.5 a 54% chance; the match had 3 goals.
Both teams scored: yes
We gave both teams to score a 34% chance.
RPS for this match0.018Lower is better · running average 0.193Track record
Original forecast
Locked before kickoff ·90-minute result, extra time not included. Rounded so the three add up to 100%.
Calibration warning. The Champions League failed our calibration check before it was added. In back-tests on the 2022–23 to 2025–26 seasons (628 matches), when the result we rated most likely had 55–65%, it came in 70% of the time, against 60% forecast. In these matches the model is too cautious, so its pick is probably more likely than shown. We publish it unchanged (model v1.3-2026-11) and are tracking live results before recalibrating. Live track record
Timeline
- Forecast lockedSaved and hashed 18 hours 26 min before kickoff (our standard is 24 hours; this forecast was locked later).
- Match completedFull time, 90 minutes: 1–2.
- Result verifiedConfirmed by two sources, then graded.
What happened vs what we expected
We made Arsenal the pick at 82% to win. That pick was correct. The most likely score in our grid was 0-2; the actual 1-2 had a 7.9% chance. This match scored an RPS of 0.018, better than our running average of 0.193 (lower is better).
Pre-match analysis (unchanged)
Our model makes Arsenal favourites at 82% away to Slavia Prague, with the draw at 13% and a Slavia Prague win at 5%. The most likely score is 0-2 (17%). High confidence.
Model panel
| Model | Slavia Prague | Draw | Arsenal | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical modelElo + Dixon-Coles | 4.6% | 13.6% | 81.8% | 0-2 |
| Final (published)V1: equals the statistical model | 4.6% | 13.6% | 81.8% | 0-2 |
Claude and Codex run only for selected leagues and have not run for this match, so only the statistical model is shown. In V1 the published probability is the statistical model alone; Claude and Codex run in shadow and are graded separately.
How we grade each modelRecent form
Days of rest count matches in every competition, cups included.
Slavia Prague34th · 1 pts from 4 · 4 days' rest
- Lost 2–3 v Lens (home), 10 Sep
- Lost 0–2 v Sabah FK (away), 13 Oct
- Drew 2–2 v Fenerbahçe (away), 20 Oct
Last 3 Champions League matches, latest on the right
- Drew 0–0 v Hradec Králové (home), 17 Oct, 1. Liga
- Drew 2–2 v Fenerbahçe (away), 20 Oct, Champions League
- Drew 1–1 v Mladá Boleslav (home), 24 Oct, 1. Liga
- Won 4–0 v FC Zbrojovka Brno (home), 27 Oct, Cup
- Won 5–0 v Jablonec (away), 31 Oct, 1. Liga
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from 1. Liga v Jablonec, 31 Oct
Arsenal1st · 24 pts from 9 · 3 days' rest
- Lost 0–3 v Brighton (away), 19 Sep
- Won 2–1 v Leeds United (home), 10 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Nottingham Forest (away), 18 Oct
- Won 2–0 v Everton (home), 24 Oct
- Won 1–0 v Liverpool (away), 1 Nov
Last 5 league matches, latest on the right
- Won 1–0 v Nottingham Forest (away), 18 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 2–2 v Bayern Munich (away), 21 Oct, UEFA Champions League
- Won 2–0 v Everton (home), 24 Oct, Premier League
- Drew 1–1 v Fleetwood Town (away), 27 Oct, Carabao Cup, lost 3–5 on penalties
- Won 1–0 v Liverpool (away), 1 Nov, Premier League
Last 5 in all competitions, including cups
Rest counted from Premier League v Liverpool, 1 Nov
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings in all competitions, latest first. Cup scores include extra time. Meetings in divisions and cups we do not cover are not included.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2025UEFA Champions League | Slavia Prague | 0 – 3 | Arsenal |
FAQ
What was the result of Slavia Prague vs Arsenal?
Slavia Prague 1–2 Arsenal after 90 minutes.
Did the AI predict Slavia Prague vs Arsenal correctly?
Yes. Our locked forecast made Arsenal the pick at 82%.
What score did the model expect?
The single most likely score was 0-2 (17%). The actual 1-2 had a 7.9% chance in the same grid.
How is this forecast graded?
On the 90-minute result with the Ranked Probability Score (RPS), where lower is better. This match scored 0.018.
Was the forecast changed after kickoff?
No. It was locked at 4 Nov 2026 01:33 UTC with sha256 558b2bc3525a and is published in our public ledger.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling