EFL Championship predicted table 2026/27
West Ham United are favourites at 31% to win the title. Expected points, title and automatic promotion chances and every finishing position come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures.
Predicted table
| # | Club | P | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 13 | 22 | 84.2 | 31% | 55% | 38% | <1% |
| 2 | Southampton | 13 | 23* | 83.2 | 27% | 50% | 41% | <1% |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 28 | 83.1 | 25% | 47% | 42% | <1% |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 24 | 75.9 | 6% | 16% | 48% | <1% |
| 5 | Swansea City | 13 | 26 | 73.3 | 3% | 10% | 41% | <1% |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion | 13 | 24 | 72.0 | 2% | 7% | 37% | <1% |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 13 | 23 | 71.7 | 2% | 7% | 37% | <1% |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 13 | 19 | 68.4 | 1% | 3% | 26% | <1% |
| 9 | Millwall | 13 | 18 | 66.4 | <1% | 2% | 19% | 1% |
| 10 | Stoke City | 13 | 23 | 65.3 | <1% | 1% | 15% | 1% |
| 11 | Norwich City | 13 | 15 | 63.4 | <1% | 1% | 12% | 2% |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers | 13 | 20 | 63.2 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 2% |
| 13 | Bristol City | 13 | 18 | 61.5 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 3% |
| 14 | Wrexham | 13 | 14 | 60.9 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 4% |
| 15 | Portsmouth | 13 | 19 | 60.9 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 3% |
| 16 | Burnley | 13 | 9 | 60.7 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 4% |
| 17 | Blackburn Rovers | 13 | 18 | 59.9 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 4% |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 14 | 51.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 26% |
| 19 | Charlton Athletic | 13 | 14 | 50.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 30% |
| 20 | Watford | 13 | 11 | 50.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 31% |
| 21 | Derby County | 13 | 7 | 49.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 33% |
| 22 | Bolton Wanderers | 13 | 14 | 48.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 39% |
| 23 | Lincoln City | 13 | 15 | 48.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 40% |
| 24 | Preston North End | 13 | 5 | 40.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 77% |
Sorted by expected final points. P and Pts are the table on 2 Nov, when the forecast ran. Promotion is a top-2 finish (straight up to the Premier League); Play-offs is the chance of finishing 3rd–6th. The play-off matches themselves are not simulated. * Southampton: 4 points deducted by the EFL for 2026/27.
Finishing position probabilities
Chance (%) of finishing in each position. Darker = more likely; blank = under 1%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 31 | 23 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southampton | 27 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Middlesbrough | 25 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Swansea City | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Birmingham City | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sheffield United | 1% | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Millwall | <1% | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Stoke City | <1% | 1% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Norwich City | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% |
| Queens Park Rangers | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% |
| Bristol City | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | <1% |
| Wrexham | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1% |
| Portsmouth | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1% | <1% |
| Burnley | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | <1% |
| Blackburn Rovers | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | <1% |
| Cardiff City | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| Charlton Athletic | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
| Watford | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| Derby County | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Bolton Wanderers | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| Lincoln City | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 10 |
| Preston North End | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 47 |
Movement this week
- Wolverhampton Wanderers+3.5 ptsTitle +4 · Promotion +7 pp
- West Bromwich Albion+3.5 ptsTitle +2 · Promotion +3 pp
- Swansea City+2.5 ptsTitle +2 · Promotion +3 pp
- West Ham United−5.9 ptsTitle −31 · Promotion −28 pp
- Lincoln City−3.0 ptsTitle ±0 · Promotion ±0 pp
- Bolton Wanderers−2.2 ptsTitle ±0 · Promotion ±0 pp
Change in expected points since the run on 26 Oct, with title and automatic promotion chances in percentage points (pp).
Frozen pre-season forecast
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 12 Aug 2026). We started covering the EFL Championship after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. It does not include the 4-point deduction for Southampton, which we added to our forecasts on 4 Nov 2026. We grade it against the final table when the season ends. Frozen 389d77a35b05
| # | Club | Exp. pts | Title | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burnley | 89.2 | 52% | 22nd |
| 2 | Southampton | 82.8 | 24% | 7th |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 76.5 | 8% | 1st |
| 4 | Sheffield United | 73.9 | 5% | 9th |
| 5 | Norwich City | 70.2 | 3% | 12th |
| 6 | Millwall | 69.5 | 2% | 13th |
| 7 | Wrexham | 68.7 | 2% | 16th |
| 8 | Derby County | 67.6 | 2% | 23rd |
| 9 | West Bromwich Albion | 65.4 | 1% | 6th |
| 10 | Swansea City | 64.2 | 1% | 5th |
| 11 | Bristol City | 64.1 | 1% | 15th |
| 12 | Birmingham City | 62.6 | <1% | 3rd |
| 13 | Blackburn Rovers | 60.1 | <1% | 14th |
| 14 | Preston North End | 58.9 | <1% | 24th |
| 15 | Watford | 58.6 | <1% | 20th |
| 16 | Stoke City | 58.6 | <1% | 4th |
| 17 | Queens Park Rangers | 58.5 | <1% | 11th |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 57.9 | <1% | 10th |
| 19 | Charlton Athletic | 56.5 | <1% | 21st |
| 20 | Cardiff City | 50.2 | <1% | 18th |
| 21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 49.9 | <1% | 2nd |
| 22 | Bolton Wanderers | 49.8 | <1% | 17th |
| 23 | Lincoln City | 49.7 | <1% | 19th |
| 24 | West Ham United | 49.7 | <1% | 8th |
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FAQ
Who will win the EFL Championship 2026/27?
Our simulations make West Ham United favourites at 31%, ahead of Southampton (27%) and Middlesbrough (25%). Even at 31%, the favourite misses out about 69% of the time.
Who will go up to the Premier League?
The top 2 go up automatically. Highest automatic promotion chances: West Ham United 55%, Southampton 50%, Middlesbrough 47%, Wolverhampton Wanderers 16%. Clubs finishing 3rd–6th go into the play-offs for one more place; we do not simulate the play-off matches.
How is the predicted table calculated?
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the goal model behind our match forecasts, adding random noise to every club’s ratings in each run, and count how often each club finishes in each position. Expected points are the average final total.
How accurate is the pre-season forecast?
It was calculated on 2 Nov 2026 using only data from before matchday 1 (results before 12 Aug 2026). We started covering the EFL Championship after the season had begun, so no table was published before kick-off. It has been frozen since then and never updated. It does not include the 4-point deduction for Southampton, which we added to our forecasts on 4 Nov 2026. Its SHA-256 hash is public. When the season ends we publish how far each club finished from its predicted position, misses included.
For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Responsible gambling